NIWA principal scientist Chris Brandolino says more rain may be on the way for the North Island this summer. Photo: Chris Brandolino
Parts of the North Island battered by heavy rain last summer could be in for another bout later this month.
NIWA's seasonal climate outlook for the next three months showed the El Niño weather pattern would persist through to March, bringing higher than average temperatures.
Most of the country is in for near average rainfall, but places like the Bay of Plenty, Hawke's Bay, Tairāwhiti, Auckland and Northland could experience some heavy rain in late January, said principal scientist Chris Brandolino.
"We could see potentially some meaningful, if not big rainfall events toward the second half of January."
But it would not become a recurring theme, and lengthier dry periods would be on the way in February and March, Brandolino said.
Photo: Supplied / NIWA
It meant the unusually wet El Niño so far would make way for more typical weather.
While the northern and eastern parts of the North Island had not yet dried out as they usually would, that lay ahead, he said.
"This is not your parents' or grandparents' El Niño, this is different, so as a result we're getting these different impacts.
"But our expectation is as we progress through the summer season, as we emerge into February especially, and even into March, we may start to see somewhat more typical areas of dryness emerge."
According to the New Zealand Drought Index, parts of the lower North Island, and the South Island, were already experiencing unusual dryness.
Warmer than average temperatures would continue across the country, Brandolino said.
"It doesn't mean every single day is going to be warmer than average, but that will be the theme, that will define the next three months."
And it was good news for those still enjoying their summer break, with high temperatures and humidity on the cards for next week.