The research found there are no survival-critical foods that would be missing from the national diet in the event of a nuclear catastrophe overseas. Stock photo Photo: 123RF
New Zealand could produce more food than needed in a nuclear winter, but a lack of imports could put agriculture at risk of collapse, new research suggests.
A New Zealand Medical Journal article published on Friday examines Aotearoa's food export and food security following a nuclear war and other catastrophic events, including major volcanic eruptions.
Authors Nick Wilson, Marnie Prickett and Matt Boyd suggested New Zealand could theoretically produce enough food to feed its whole population, even after a severe nuclear winter scenario that reduced food production by 61 percent.
"Current major food exports are equivalent to 3.9 times current dietary energy intakes for all New Zealand citizens," the research said.
"During the various nuclear winter scenarios considered (minimal to severe), food production available from diverted exported foods was estimated to still be 3.6 to 1.5 times current daily energy intakes."
The research found there are no survival-critical foods that would be missing from the national diet due to the variety of food production in New Zealand.
"At any point in time, some of these exported foods are already available in warehouses and in shipping containers awaiting export.
"For example, if 10 percent of annual export production is in this pre-export state, it would be enough to provide dietary energy for all New Zealand citizens for around 4.7 months (if appropriately distributed)."
A long winter
But the authors said the benefits could be very short-term, as the agricultural system relied on imported diesel, fertiliser, pesticides, seeds and machinery parts.
They argued the agriculture sector would need to be made more resilient to ensure it coped with the potential lack of international trade.
Most food transported in New Zealand by rail, track and van relied on imported fossil fuels, with work on hydrogen-powered trucks and electric milk tankers still in the early stages, they said.
"In a post-war setting, some existing electric cars and vans could be repurposed for food delivery, but possibly food production would need to be intensified closer to cities and towns.
"Severe fuel shortages could require a return to cattle drives, where cattle are herded along roads from farms to abattoirs in towns and cities."
The authors said their work was still preliminary and did not explore the other sectors that agriculture, food processing and food delivery were interlinked with or the size of the country's non-export food economy that included food produced for the domestic market, household food production, hunting or fishing.
"Further research is needed to clarify agricultural impacts and the role of such catastrophes on the interlinked domains of energy, transport, manufacturing, finance, industrial materials, trade and societal functioning."