New Zealand / Arts

Oscars 2024: Who will win, who got snubbed - and where NZ is in the mix

12:22 pm on 24 January 2024

Oppenheimer is leading the charge in this year's Academy Award nominations. Photo: UNIVERSAL PICTURES / AFP

This year's Oscars is likely to be the thing Hollywood usually wants to avoid - a big bomb.

An Oppenheimer-sized bomb, that is, with Christopher Nolan's smash hit biopic of the atomic bomb's creator leading the way with 13 Academy Award nominations.

Close behind are the twisted Frankenstein fable Poor Things with 11 nominations, Martin Scorsese's epic Killers of the Flower Moon with 10 and the year's biggest box office bonanza, Barbie, with eight (but a couple of notable omissions for that picture).

Sure, the Oscars are silly, overhyped and a bit old-fashioned, but in a world filled with an endless procession of grim headlines, a little glam celebration of the best of the silver screen feels like an act of optimism.

In this "Barbenheimer" year for film, it's looking like the 'Heimer will take the lead on the big night, with likely wins for Best Picture, Best Director and possibly Best Actor for Cillian Murphy.

So will there be any big surprises on Oscar night?

It seems unlikely that anything can stop Oppenheimer from grabbing Best Picture, although New Zealand's Power Of The Dog by Dame Jane Campion seemed pretty likely to win a couple of years back and was beaten by the underdog CODA. With 10 nominees for Best Picture, anything could happen.

The acting nominations are a bit more interesting, with Cillian Murphy and the superb Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers wrestling for Best Actor. Maestro's Bradley Cooper is an outside chance but the well-loved and charming Giamatti has the momentum for his terrific turn as a curmudgeonly teacher. His Golden Globes victory speech alone makes you want to give it to him.

For Best Actress, Margot Robbie truly was robbed of a nomination for bringing a plastic doll to unforgettable life in Barbie, but Emma Stone really did deliver the year's most fearless performance in the delightfully weird Poor Things. Don't count out Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon, the first ever Native American acting nominee, or an outside chance by multiple nominee, never a winner Annette Bening for Nyad.

Former Iron Man, former drug addict and Oscar-less superstar Robert Downey Jr. is likely to be the popular choice for best Supporting Actor for Oppenheimer for his remarkable career rehabilitation, while Da'Vine Joy Randolph is pretty much a lock for Best Supporting Actress for her heartbreaking turn in The Holdovers.

It's hard not to imagine Oppenheimer director Christopher Nolan winning Best Director, but on the other hand, it's a crime against film that pretty much Hollywood's best living director, Martin Scorsese, has only had one win out of 10 career nominations to date, and despite being a bit long, Killers of the Flower Moon is a masterful work.

Since Parasite's historic Best Picture win in 2020, international films have edged more and more into the mix, with Past Lives, Zone of Interest and Anatomy of A Fall all getting Best Picture nominations. The Oscars feel a lot more global than they once did.

Yeah, mate, but did New Zealand get anything, though?

We may not be leading the top nominees but New Zealand does have some Oscar ties this year. Wēta FX appears to be once again holding the fort for New Zealand, with its staff having worked on Special Effects nominee Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.

The Best Animated Short Film nominee War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko, directed by Dave Mullins, was also brought to life with the help of Sir Peter Jackson and WetaFX.

Also, we got a bit of sideways recognition for one of the nominees, The Color Purple's Danielle Brooks, who's currently filming the Minecraft movie in this country:

OK, but who missed out?

The snubs for Robbie and Greta Gerwig for Best Director for Barbie are pretty shocking. But look for Barbie to still pick up some Oscar gold. (If Ryan Gosling's Ken as Best Supporting Actor wins an Oscar instead of Robbie's Barbie, though, wouldn't that be the height of irony for this innovative feminist narrative?)

Margot Robbie missed out for her starring role in Barbie. Photo: WARNER BROS. PICTURES

But pour some out for Willem Dafoe, ignored for his haunting mad scientist in Poor Things, or newcomer Dominic Sessa, who was fantastic as a troubled student in The Holdovers. The dark, filthy satire Saltburn missed out on nominations for star Barry Keoghan and Rosamund Pike. For Best Actor, Nicolas Cage truly deserved another nomination for the twisty comedy Dream Scenario, while Leonardo DiCaprio, whose enjoyably subtle turn in Killers of the Flower Moon was some of his best work, was also skipped over.

Wes Anderson's latest quirky delight Asteroid City entirely missed out and deserved a look for its colourful production design at the very least, while the year's best action movie, Japan's Godzilla Minus One, only took a special effects nod.

Where can I watch them to catch up?

Many of the major nominees are now available for digital rental or available for purchase on DVD/blu-ray. Maestro and Nyad can now be seen on Netflix and Killers of the Flower Moon on Apple TV+. Best Picture nominees Poor Things, Zone Of Interest and The Holdovers are still currently in selected cinemas.

The full list of nominees:

Best picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Best actor in a leading role

Bradley Cooper - Maestro

Colman Domingo - Rustin

Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

Best actor in a supporting role

Sterling K Brown - American Fiction

Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling - Barbie

Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

Best actress in a leading role

Annette Bening - Nyad

Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan - Maestro

Emma Stone - Poor Things

Best actress in a supporting role

Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple

America Ferrera - Barbie

Jodie Foster - Nyad

Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Best directing

Anatomy of a Fall - Justine Triet

Killers of the Flower Moon - Martin Scorsese

Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan

Poor Things - Yorgos Lanthimos

The Zone of Interest - Jonathan Glazer

Best animated feature film

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best adapted screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Best original screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Maestro

May December

Past Lives

Best cinematography

El Conde

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Best costume design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Best documentary feature film

Bobi Wine: The People's President

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

To Kill a Tiger

20 Days in Mariupol

Best documentary short film

The ABCs of Book Banning

The Barber of Little Rock

Island in Between

The Last Repair Shop

Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

Best film editing

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Best international feature film

Io Capitano

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Teachers' Lounge

The Zone of Interest

Best makeup and hairstyling

Golda

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

Best original score

American Fiction

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Best original song

The Fire Inside - Flamin' Hot

I'm Just Ken - Barbie

It Never Went Away - American Symphony

Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) - Killers of the Flower Moon

What Was I Made For? - Barbie

Best production design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Best animated short film

Letter to a Pig

Ninety-Five Senses

Our Uniform

Pachyderme

WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Best live action short film

The After

Invincible

Knight of Fortune

Red, White and Blue

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Best sound

The Creator

Maestro

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

Best visual effects

The Creator

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

Napoleon