State of Origin decider: NSW must survive cauldron-like setting to clinch series

About 52,000 mad Queenslanders - and the odd (very odd) New South Welshman - will pack Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night for the rugby league State of Origin decider between the Queensland Maroons and the New South Wales Blues.

There's a special atmosphere at Suncorp, formerly known as Lang Park. The crowd is close to the action and not shy about making their presence felt. Even before the game begins, there will be electricity in the air.

Queensland won the first game in Sydney 34-10, but the game was a mismatch with Blues centre Joseph Sua'ali'i sent off after seven minutes. A game between 12 and 13 could have only one result, although the Blues hung in there for a long time before running out of gas.

The second game in Melbourne was won by New South Wales 38-18. They ran away with the game in the first half, leading at halftime 34-0. Queensland won the second half 18-4, but you don't come back from a 34-point deficit in Origin.

For the third game, the Blues are favourites. They have a bigger, tougher pack, and the pinpoint kicking of halfback Mitchell Moses was a huge plus for them in game two.

But Queensland will have history on their side. Only twice in 44 years have New South Wales won a decider at Brisbane. That's because of the cauldron-like atmosphere at Suncorp which can inspire the Maroons and intimidate the referee. Just nine times in 50 games has New South Wales won the penalty count at Suncorp.

How will the game go? There's bound to be an initial period where the two forward packs try each other out. In game two, it looked like the Blues "bullied" the Maroons, with a hard, physical game, and the judicious use of the elbow to the backs of some of the Maroon players. Then the game could open up.

The Blues will employ their bigger forwards to try to roll the Maroon pack and open up gaps for Moses and his five-eighth Jarome Luai to exploit. They're both good kickers who will make liberal use of the bomb near the Queensland line, knowing that leaping winger Zac Lomax will usually catch it and score.

Or it could be that the game opens up for Queensland's match-winners. If it's a game for speedy outside backs who can win a game with a touch of brilliance, then the Maroons will win. Exuberant young fullback Reece Walsh was quiet in game two, but he looks back to full fitness now and it seems unlikely he will have another quiet match.

Centre Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is the speediest of centres and now has eight tries in just seven Origin games. You can bet on him scoring again tonight. And for the first time in the series, Newcastle fullback Kalyn Ponga is in the team, as a bench player. A brilliant attacking player, one of the game's superstars, the thought of him coming on to run the ball just as the opposition tires is simply mouth-watering.

The key players are usually in the spine. Moses outplayed Queensland halfback and captain Daly Cherry-Evans in game two. But Cherry-Evans is just as good a kicker and has an eye for a gap. His two hookers, Ben Hunt and Harry Grant, are both crafty readers of the game too. If there are gaps in the Blues defence, they will find them.

The Blues have lost their one superstar as centre Latrell Mitchell is injured. Their key players are their forwards, the colossal front-rower Payne Haas, and the aggressive second rowers Angus Crichton and Liam Martin. And bench player Spencer Leniu has had an outstanding series so far - so good he may be player of the series if the Blues win again.

On paper, the Blues look bigger and tougher and in Origin that counts. But the Queenslanders are underdogs every year and usually end up with the trophy.

Five reasons why a Kiwi should support NSW

• Wahs hero Mitch Barnett is making his Origin debut
• Blues coach Michael "Madge" Maguire was until recently the Kiwis coach
• Five-eighth Jarome Luai is Māori - he's of Tainui descent
• All Black Richie Mo'unga has been helping the Blues at training this week
• Loads of Kiwis live in Bondi

Five reasons why a Kiwi should support Queensland

• Wahs star Kurt Capewell is off the bench and on the run-on side
• Bench player Kalyn Ponga is Māori and grew up in Palmerston North
• Centre Dane Gagai and wing Valentine Holmes are also Māori
• Second-rower Jeremiah Nanai and bench player Felise Kaufusi were both born in New Zealand
• Loads of Kiwis live on the Gold Coast

New South Wales

Fullback - Dylan Edwards (Penrith Panthers) Wings - Zac Lomax (St George Illawarra Dragons) , Brian To'o (Penrith Panthers) Centres - Bradman Best (Newcastle Knights), Stephen Crichton (Canterbury Bulldogs) Five-eighth - Jarome Luai (Penrith Panthers) Halfback - Mitchell Moses (Parramatta Eels)

Lock - Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs) Second Row - Angus Crichton (Sydney Roosters), Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers) Front Row - Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos), Jake Trbojevic (Manly Sea Eagles) (captain) Hooker - Reece Robson (North Queensland Cowboys). Bench players - Mitch Barnett (New Zealand Warriors), Spencer Leniu (Sydney Roosters), Connor Watson (Sydney Roosters), Isaah Yeo (Penrith Panthers).

Coach - Michael Maguire

Queensland

Fullback - Reece Walsh (Brisbane Broncos) Wings - Selwyn Cobbo (Brisbane Broncos) , Valentine Holmes (North Queensland Cowboys) Centres - Dane Gagai (Newcastle Knights), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Redcliffe Dolphins) Five-eighth - Tom Dearden (North Queensland Cowboys) Halfback - Daly Cherry-Evans (Manly Sea Eagles) (captain) Lock - Patty Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos) Second Row - Kurt Capewell (New Zealand Warriors), Jeremiah Nanai (North Queensland Cowboys) Front Row - Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters), Reuben Cotter (North Queensland Cowboys) Hooker - Ben Hunt (St George Illawarra Dragons)

Bench players - Moeaki Fotuaika (Gold Coast Titans), Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm), Felise Kaufusi (Redcliffe Dolphins), Kalyn Ponga (Newcastle Knights)

Coach - Billy Slater

Referee: Ashley Klein. Kick-off is at 10.05pm (NZ time).