Jerry Prendergast of United Fresh says supply and demand has always dictated fruit and vege prices, and always will. Photo: 123RF
The already high prices we pay for fruit and veges could be about to go even higher on the back of Cyclone Gabrielle.
Some prices have doubled since the cyclone struck. Local Auckland grocers say kūmara - which was $4.50/kg - is now at least $9/kg, while a single broccoli head is $5.99.
Retailers are also expecting potato and onion prices to go up significantly too.
"Cauliflower, broccoli, it used to be like $1.99 and now it's gone up to $4 and it's only a small little broccoli, so it's not really worth it," one shopper told RNZ.
"They're going to increase, right? Unfortunately, supply and demand and just with all the bad weather, the farmers are going to have a difficult time trying to match that," said another.
Jerry Prendergast is president of United Fresh, an industry group representing fresh fruit and vege suppliers. He said supply and demand has always dictated prices, and always will.
"That means that when you've got plenty available the price tends to come down," and vice versa, he told Morning Report on Thursday.
"Imports usually are a costly way to bring in a vegetable commodity" - United Fresh president Jerry Prendergast
He said prices over the next year were likely to be "unstable", with "so much unknown" about how crops would fare in the wake of Cyclone Gabrielle. Northland grows most of the country's kūmara, for example, and 90 percent of it was wiped out in the storm.
"It is too soon to tell, it is too soon to predict. Nature and growers and the way in which the produce is produced is quite resilient. It is very dependent upon the weather, as we see.
"You know, we've only got to have a good period now during our autumn period and we could have a really good crop of vegetables out of the ground.
"I think the challenges will be, what will the kiwifruit crop be like when it comes off and goes into long-term storage? How many apples are going to be able to be harvested and go into storage? So many of these questions can't be answered just yet."
Much of those two crops gets exported - almost all of it, in the case of kiwifruit - and was "really important to our economy", Prendergast said.
Importing the difference was not really a viable alternative, he added, and unlikely to save consumers much money, if any at all.
"Imports usually are a costly way to bring in a vegetable commodity. We would of course import a lot of fruit - bananas, pineapples, for example, grapes from overseas, even citrus on a regular basis - however, when it comes to vegetables, they are very costly to ship in terms of transport.
"You also have got a timing issue. You know you've only got a very short window.
"We do fly into the country often some products - beans, courgettes throughout the winter months when they're not available in New Zealand. However, it comes back to [the fact] you can normally produce at a better price on the ground in New Zealand if your weather conditions are right."
So over the next year or so, he recommended Kiwis be "flexible in their thinking" when it comes to choosing fresh fruit and veges - acknowledging some might have to go for cheaper options like rice or pasta.
"I'm feeling for everyone who's going into a retail environment at the moment where their heart is set on a particular commodity… However, what I would recommend is, there'll be an opportunity when there'll be pumpkin at good pricing. It's actually identifying what might be available at a particular period that can be affordable."
Inflation has been over 7 percent since mid-last year, stabilising at 7.2 percent in the last quarter of 2022. The cost of food is increasing faster - rising 10.7 percent in the year to November - up from an annual increase of just 0.5 percent 18 months earlier.
Prendergast said the weather's effect on fresh produce has "potential" to drive that figure higher.