New projections suggest it could be 2024 and up to $39 billion could be lost before the tourism industry gets close to its new normal.
Tourism Industry Aotearoa chief executive Chris Roberts. Photo: SUPPLIED - TIA
Before Covid-19, tourism was the country's biggest foreign exchange earner supporting close to 385,000 jobs.
Tourism Industry Aotearoa released a roadmap at its annual summit on Monday morning which outlined how the sector's recovery might progress over the next few years.
The analysis showed delays to the removal of border restrictions could mean $16b in potential additional loss with the loss of international visitor spending.
Tourism Industry Aotearoa chief executive Chris Roberts said the roadmap aimed to provide guidance so tourism businesses could plan for a range of potential pathways.
"$26b in earnings from international visitors has already been lost since border restrictions began in February 2020. The analysis suggests a further $23b loss in the next three years, but this could balloon to $39b if our reconnection to the world is delayed," he said.
The roadmap drew on the opinions and expertise of two dozen tourism leaders.
It started with a careful reopening next year with the focus on limiting harm.
Border policy uncertainty, competition re-emerging, and higher costs and charges were among the challenges that would be faced.
A partial recovery was signalled by 2023 with pent up demand and Aotearoa's reputation would help to encourage travellers to visit. But the roadmap also suggested aviation capacity and cost would likely create a hurdle for them.
The new normal started in 2024 with the roadmap suggesting many Covid-19-era concerns were being left behind. It was expected to still face aviation constraints and strong competition while workforce issues were likely to cause additional challenges.
"Even if operators disagree or will make up their own minds, this roadmap work will form a basis for their own business planning. Not many government or private sector analysts are covering tourism so this information may also be used to ensure better consideration of tourism across a wide range of processes."
The key to attracting international visitors back was quarantine free travel, he said.
"We know it will be a step-by-step process but the best way to get moving on the road ahead is to complete the first few small steps safely and swiftly."
The roadmap suggested there was still strong demand for travel to Aotearoa, but Roberts said they needed to be able to signal the way forward to those international markets as they needed time to rebuild their flight connectivity which could take years to rebuild.
The new normal for travel was shaping up around the world but Aotearoa was on the edge for logistics connections and potentially decision making, it said.
An additional cause of uncertainty was the impact of new virus variants, despite this work being done before Omicron started hitting headlines.
"We are certainly not taking these projections as set in concrete. Tourism Industry Aotearoa will continue to advocate strongly to government to achieve the best possible outcomes for our industry, which was the first to be hit by the pandemic and will be the last to recover," Roberts said.