Trump rally shooting hardly surprising, amid violent political rhetoric

Analysis - I can't say I'm shocked. As the US news networks offer rolling coverage dissecting the detail of today's shooting at a Donald Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, and we hear eye-witnesses trying to make sense of their trauma, the most common word being used is shock.

And shocking it is. That someone should try to shoot dead a candidate in a democratic election in the developed world in 2024, as it seems happened just outside Pittsburgh today, is thankfully incredibly rare. It is therefore by definition shocking.

And not just in the "surprise" meaning of the word, but also the "disgust" meaning. We should all without hesitation say violence has no place in democratic contests. Elections are battles of ideas, not of bullets.

More coverage of the assassination attempt against Donald Trump:

• Live blog: Assassination attempt against Trump
• Trump rally shooting: What we know so far
• In photos: Shooting disrupts Trump rally
• How the shooting unfolded

However, that doesn't mean anyone closely following US politics in recent years will, in their heart of hearts, be surprised that the violent rhetoric and protest has been upgraded to what is being investigated as an assassination attempt on a presidential candidate.

We reap what we sow and the bitter division and cynicism apparent in America's public debate has been all too obvious for some time.

The Pew Research Center does remarkable work capturing the heartbeat of the nation, and in September last year it reported only 4 percent of American adults believe their political system is working extremely or very well; only a quarter think it is working even "somewhat well". The same survey showed 55 percent feel "angry" when they think about politics.

So how surprising is it that one of those angry people picked up a weapon, found a rooftop, and decided to express that anger down the barrel of a gun?

Even in 2020 as President Joe Biden was stressing in his first speech as president-elect that he was committed to bridging the deep divisions in American society and uniting its citizens, Pew wrote "Americans have rarely been as polarised as they are today".

Covid, fragmented media, the two-party system, identity and religious politics, and the demonisation of people we disagree with - those are just some of the seeds sown that led to the sort of violence we've seen today. I'm sure you can name others.

The last time America saw these sorts of divisions was at the height of the civil rights and Vietnam War protests in the late 1960s.

One Trump supporter at the Butler rally told CNN he was reminded of 1968. That was the year both Martin Luther-King and Robert Kennedy were gunned down. As of 30 June, 8539 Americans have been shot dead this year.

And it was only at the start of this presidential term that the US Capitol was attacked in an act of political violence.

So no, today's shooting is not surprising. History itself has been warning us. And, as horrible as it is to write, it only makes more violence this year more likely. (It's worth noting with the Republican Convention starting next week and the Democratic Convention due in August, that 1968 was also the year the Democratic Convention in Chicago was the scene of violent street clashes between protestors and police.)

So what impact will this have on November's election? Social media posts are declaring all the reckons you might expect: Trump has become a martyr and the election is his. Trump is a victim of his own violent rhetoric. Democratic attacks on Trump comparing him to Hitler are the cause of this shooting. Republicans who excused the attacks on the Capitol must accept blame… and on and on.

The truth is, no one can know for certain how US voters will respond to this. Those already committed to one side or another will probably see their opponents as the sowers of what was reaped today. At most, 20 percent of voters are undecided, and when you boil those down to swing states, and beneath that key counties, the election is still likely to be decided by mere thousands of voters.

Even as our understanding of what happened is still unfolding, I'm confident the influence today's events have on the election result won't be decided by the act of one shooter, but rather by how the parties and politicians respond to today's violence.

Those swing voters will be moved by the reaction as much as the action. It could be independents swing behind Trump as a martyr. But it's just as possible they turn to Biden, as a more moderate and conciliatory candidate. It could be one party or another over-reaches in the emotion of the moment.

Perhaps the best hope we can have today is that the loudest voices over the coming weeks are voices of reason and unity. That those who try to use today to sow yet more division and discord are ignored or challenged. That America - to borrow a phrase from Abraham Lincoln, a man who knew a thing or two about bringing a country together and the deep tragedy of political violence - instead turns to "the better angels of our nature".

Perhaps we can dare to hope today that this is a wake-up call for those dividing America and a chance for the country to find common cause in its prayers for peace and reconciliation.

* Tim Watkin is a founder of political news website Pundit, has a long career in journalism and broadcasting, and now runs the podcast team at RNZ.