GDP figures are due out this week. Photo: 123RF
Economists are making a wide range of forecasts for gross domestic product (GDP) growth as the latest figures are about to be released.
Figures for the three months ended June will be revealed this week, and a consensus forecast is of 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter growth, well down on the Reserve Bank's 1.8 percent forecast.
Westpac chief economist Michael Gordon was forecasting quarterly growth of 1.6 percent, which compared with the first quarter GDP's 0.2 percent contraction.
However, he said there were plenty of unknowns, which made it hard to estimate, such as the reopening of the international border to visitors.
"I'm feeling quite uncertain about just how big that tourism impact will be. So I would not rule out a zero. I would also not rule out a three. So it could be quite soft. It could be an absolute whopper," Gordon said, adding there was little sign of recession.
"We're still in an economy that's looking pretty robust, and the task of cooling things down to something that's sustainable, still very much lies in the future."
ANZ economists were expecting GDP growth to be softer than initially expected, with a forecast of 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion, compared with an earlier forecast of 1.0 percent.
"Leading indicators going into the Q2 GDP release have been softer than expected on balance, indicating an economy struggling to get resource to grow," ANZ said in a statement.
ASB economist Nathaniel Keall was forecasting growth of 1.2 percent, though he said the economy was slowing.
"At the moment, it's really capacity challenges that have been the biggest headwind for businesses," Keall said, referring to labour market shortages, rising costs, higher interest rates, a cooling housing market, and global economic issues, such as supply chain issues.
"Those are persistent themes we're likely to see continuing over the third quarter and the last quarter of the year."