All Blacks take no chances taken as conservatism closes out season

All Blacks v Italy

Kick-off: 9.10am Sunday 24 November

Allianz Stadium, Turin

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Analysis - You can read a fair bit into the All Black side Scott Robertson has selected for their last test of the year. Instead of the usual wholesale changes for a test they have virtually no chance of losing, the big guns have been loaded up and are ready to blast the hapless Italians into the alps that flank Turin.

But the question has to be asked: this is an opponent the All Blacks beat by almost 100 points the last time they met. The average All Black margin of victory over the entire test history of this fixture is a laughable 50 points anyway, so why the hesitancy around selection?

The short answer is that Robertson is very much finishing the season the way he started it, with a conservative approach to who takes the field. Remember back to the first test against England, the All Black side that night in Dunedin was essentially the same one that played at last year's World Cup with only injury and retirement forced changes.

And really, that's the way it's stayed since. While Wallace Sititi has made his mark and been rightfully nominated for World Rugby Breakthrough Player of the year, it is worth remembering that he only debuted in the first place due to an injury to Samipeni Finau. Since then, he's been on the park for every single minute of the All Blacks' last six tests.

Peter Lakai would probably be in the same bracket as those guys had it not been for injuries to Sam Cane and Samipeni Finau, however he proved beyond all doubt he was ready for test rugby after being thrust into the French test after only three minutes.

So what does that say? That the plan is players simply have to wait for one of the established starters to get hurt before they get a run?

Robertson has repeated the line that "we've picked the best team to win this test" this season and it's been difficult to argue against that logic - until now. Robertson, who scored his first test try against Italy 25 years ago, could've conceivably pulled on the boots himself and the All Blacks would still win this one easily.

Josh Lord has only played 30 minutes of rugby on this whole tour. George Bell's had only 30 seconds more thanks to very late appearance against Ireland, while at least David Havili should get a bit of game time this weekend. There's been no look in at all for the players called in from the All Blacks XV as cover, despite Fabian Holland being seen as an All Black in waiting, Chay Fihaki having been in the set up since the Rugby Championship and Du'Plessis Kirifi more than capable of filling the gap in the loose forwards.

This ties in with one topical and not so insignificant issue. The news this week that Harry Plummer wasn't going to wait around any longer to try and be part of Robertson's plans is a sign that you can't leave players hanging for too long. His case for leaving is a solid one, the elevation of Josh Jacomb to the All Black environment is a clear indication that Plummer had a fight on his hands just to be holding the tackle bags, plus his stock is higher than ever thanks to his championship-winning effort with the Blues.

However, it's worth weighing up what next season will look like as opposed to this one before we get too hung up on this. This year Robertson was very much chucked in the deep end against England, with only one soft test against Fiji to rotate his squad. In 2025, France have already confirmed they're bringing down an understrength team so there should be room to experiment with whoever has come out hot in Super Rugby Pacific.

If there's one thing that has been proven this year it's that Robertson hasn't quite come in with the new broom many thought he would've. It's just phase one of a bigger plan, almost certainly, but for now it's safety first to get their 10th win of the season.

All Blacks: 1. Ethan de Groot 2. Codie Taylor 3. Tyrel Lomax 4. Scott Barrett (c) 5. Patrick Tuipulotu 6. Wallace Sititi 7. Sam Cane 8. Ardie Savea 9. Cam Roigard 10. Beauden Barrett 11. Caleb Clarke 12. Anton Lienert-Brown 13. Rieko Ioane 14. Mark Tele'a 15. Will Jordan

Bench: 16. Asafo Aumua 17. Ofa Tu'ungafasi 18. Fletcher Newell 19. Tupou Vaa'i 20. Peter Lakai 21. TJ Perenara 22. David Havili 23. Damian McKenzie

Italy: 1. Danilo Fischetti 2. Gianmarco Lucchesi 3. Marco Riccioni 4. Federico Ruzza 5. Dino Lamb 6. Sebastian Negri 7. Manuel Zuliani 8. Ross Vintcent 9. Martin Page-Relo 10. Paolo Garbisi 11. Monty Ioane 12. Tommaso Menoncello 13. Juan Ignacio Brex (c) 14. Jacopo Trulla 15. Ange Capuozzo

Bench: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo 18 Simone Ferrari, 19 Niccolò Cannone, 20 Alessandro Izekor, 21 Alessandro Garbisi, 22 Leonardo Marin 23 Marco Zanon