Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Winston Peters might drop clues on New Zealand's potential pathway in AUKUS Pillar Two on Wednesday night. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver
Analysis - The United States has unveiled plans to boost the weapons trade with Australia and the UK for being part of AUKUS, on the same day that Winston Peters is expected to sketch New Zealand's position in regards to the region's premier defence pact.
Political commentators expect a speech on Wednesday evening by the foreign minister to touch on how talks about maybe joining AUKUS's outer ring, Pillar Two (P2), are going.
At the same time, South Korea is reportedly seeking to support AUKUS Pillar Two activities and join as a partner, Defence Minister Shin Won-sik said after a meeting with the Australian foreign and defence ministers in Melbourne.
Reuters is also reporting the US State Department has outlined ways to free up the transfer of sensitive military technology to its two founding partners in AUKUS Pillar One (P1), the one set up to provide nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra.
The move "exempts the vast majority of current licensed defense trade" between the three partners, the State Department said.
It is a sign of how the AUKUS deal comes with trade dollars attached.
It aligns with a new Pentagon strategy it calls "friendshoring", relaxing restrictions so arms factories can be set up abroad, to try to catch up with China's weapons drive.
Australia is already on its way to making missiles crucial in the Ukraine war, outside the US for the first time.
What has now been greased within P1 - sharing advanced military technologies - is at the heart of P2, though this club so far lacks any members or any known way of getting in.
Peters might drop clues on that on Wednesday night.
So far, though, the theme of the few - and mostly entirely blanked-out - papers released by the government about its inch-by-inch progress, including one newly released on Tuesday, has been about "seeking to explore what Pillar 2 might offer or mean on a non commitments basis".
Officials have talked for months, too, about the "opportunities for New Zealand's research community and industry", without revealing very much more.
What P2 might offer industry is clearer now after the license-cutting move with Canberra, which its ambassador to Washington, former prime minister Kevin Rudd, is calling a "game changer" and revolutionary.
"For the first time, AUKUS defence industries will be able to work in a seamless, licence-free environment," Rudd was quoted by Reuters.
Sceptic Bob Carr, who replaced Rudd as foreign minister many moons ago, told an invited crowd at Parliament in Wellington recently, AUKUS was just a "bulls**t" way of locking other militaries into buying US bombs and guns for years.
New Zealand is drawing up just such a shopping list, with Defence Minister Judith Collins calling on officials to hurry up with delivering a new defence capability plan for the decades ahead.
America is an eager weapons seller.
In Scranton, Pennsylvania, dated machinery churns artillery for modern conflicts, especially the war in Ukraine. Photo: AFP / Charly Triballeau
Its enthusiasm goes wider too. The latest OIA release, about a previously unreported high-level meeting between US and New Zealand officials last September, states:
"New Zealand's interest was appreciated and recognised by the US, and there was certainly enthusiasm amongst the AUKUS partners to bring others into Pillar Two. At this stage, however, the mechanics of this were still be [sic] worked out between the AUKUS partners."
Just having the bilateral, led by a deputy CE at Foreign Affairs and Trade and the US National Security Council coordinator for the Indo-pacific, was called an "important step".
Important, but not transparent. Eighteen of the OIA's 21 pages are mostly or fully blanked out.
A single page about "areas where New Zealand may have relevant niche expertise" is among those redacted.
The geopolitics have been much clearer: "We share a clear-eyed view of the deteriorating geostrategic outlook, and understand the strategic drivers for AUKUS - the same drivers are shaping the evolution of our own national security and defence policy settings," the summary of the bilateral US-NZ talks said.
All along, the public has had to fill in the blanks about the pros and cons of pursuing AUKUS Pillar Two.
Tonight, Peters may provide a clue or two more in his speech.
The US Space Force describes its latest deal with US-NZ company Rocket Lab as one that "advances the maturation of space-based warfighter technologies", by helping build up new layer of low-orbit satellites. Photo: Sharon Brettkelly
For the US, using P2 to strengthen ties with the weakest link of the Five Eyes intelligence group, New Zealand, might count for something, and the new OIA hints at it:
"For New Zealand as a Five Eyes member, ... we can see that Pillar Two presents both potential capability opportunities for New Zealand, as well as interoperability implications as our key partners develop and adopt new capabilities and technologies."
Cyber and space are the two new frontiers of the US-China arms race. New Zealand has followed the US anti-TikTok lead - and WeChat could be next - and recently became much more bullish about blaming China for hacking, which its biggest trade partner rejects.
The latest boost to the defence trade will broaden "friendshoring" with Australia. New Zealand cannot offer missile factories, but it does does launch rockets - and the US Space Force describes its latest deal with US-NZ company Rocket Lab as one that "advances the maturation of space-based warfighter technologies", by helping build up new layer of low-orbit satellites.
Japan offers other clues to where this might head; it appears furthest along the path to joining P2, at the same time as it has embarked on a "once-unthinkable military build-up".
"Expectations that Japan can step up international collaboration on defence projects have been bolstered by Tokyo recently relaxing rules on defence exports," Reuters reported.
In Japan, across the Tasman, the US is engaged in pulling down barriers to defence trading in a region it says is the world's most tense.
AUKUS opportunities are now coming knocking.