Business

Consumer sentiment nears record low in survey

11:50 am on 1 July 2022

Consumer sentiment has fallen to dire levels, as rising interest rates, high inflation and falling house prices weigh on households.

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The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index slipped 1.8 points in June to 80.5 to sit just above its record low.

A net 21 percent of households thought it was a terrible time to buy a major household item, a 9-point gain on the May result.

ANZ senior economist Miles Workman said sentiment was still deep within the "something to worry about zone".

"Households are dealing with a lot right now; incomes not keeping up with inflation, lifting interest rates, falling house and other asset prices, and ongoing Covid and general economic uncertainty."

The report follows yesterday's equally downbeat survey of business sentiment, which indicated that inflationary pressures remained a major concern for firms.

Consumers' perceptions of their current financial situation deteriorated over the month, as did their personal expectations for the future.

"Overall, these data are sending sobering signals about the outlook.

"So far, spending has been holding up. Households not looking to buy major household items is an ominous sign for retailers nonetheless."

Economic fundamentals remained firm, he said, with the tightness in the labour market supporting households' perceptions of job security.

Consumers' inflation expectations jumped half a percent to 5.6 percent, reversing last month's decline.

As a rule of thumb, if consumers expect prices to rise it makes it easier for businesses to lift their prices without the fear of losing market share.

Workman said the latest figures suggests the Reserve Bank still had work to do to tame inflation.

"Inflation expectations are too high.

"Failure to get on top of inflation expectations would risk a nasty combo of persistently high inflation, weak activity, and lifting unemployment."

ANZ economists expected two more 50 basis point hikes at the RBNZ's next two reviews of monetary policy before the central bank enters a more "data dependent" and gradual path to monetary tightening.