Political polls feed the headlines and keep voters – and journalists reporting on them – guessing. Critics say they can't be trusted but experts say, like it or not, New Zealand's polls are among the most accurate in the world.
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1News political editor Jessica Mutch-McKay presents the results of the July 2023 1News Verian poll. Photo: TVNZ
Not so long ago, New Zealand was "nirvana" when it came to surveying people on which party they would vote for and who they preferred as their prime minister.
Not any more.
In the era of mistrust where social media is the single source of news for many, polling firms are under increasing pressure to produce data that represents what the population thinks – and that is becoming more and more difficult, says Murray Campbell, the New Zealand Research Association's polling spokesperson.
"Social media has fragmented opinion and challenged what truth is like nothing else," he says.
"I'd like to think that political polls can still play a role in being an independent, objective and trusted statement of what are people thinking politically, where are their political preferences sitting."
But people are wary of protecting their privacy and less willing to share their political viewpoints when contacted. Add to that the difficulties of reaching people when landlines have all but disappeared, and door-knocking isn't really an option because of the growing number of people living in apartment buildings, or homes heavily protected by security.
Campbell tells The Detail how polling methodology has changed from mainly random digit dialling landlines to cellphones and online consumer panels in order to reach that crucial broad cross-section of the voting public.
Despite the challenges, New Zealand has a good reputation for accuracy in political polls globally, and of the roughly 135 countries where political polling is done, research shows the accuracy is actually increasing, he says.
The two most recent polls from Newshub Reid Research and 1News Verrian paint a similar picture – National and ACT ahead of Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori. A new Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll has Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon neck-and-neck as preferred prime minister.
RNZ's deputy political editor Craig McCulloch says polls aren't just appointment viewing for journalists and political tragics, they're important for everyone as one of the only ways to check in on public sentiment without holding an election.
"Without polling, you are left to effectively trust what parties tell you, what MPs tell you, what the so-called man or woman on the street tells you, social media, vibes - none of that really is scientific or reliable. Polls at least help us get a lot closer to the truth of the matter."
Political parties have a "love-hate relationship" with polls, and they do take them seriously, even if they publicly suggest otherwise. McCulloch says parties are constantly running internal polling and focus groups to keep in touch with what voters are thinking.
"That wealth tax that the government was looking into ... that focus grouped particularly poorly, which is likely one of the reasons it was killed."
McCulloch tells The Detail that spiralling performance in public polling was part of what drove National MPs to oust then-party leader Simon Bridges ahead of the general election in 2020.
The number of polls being run is a lot lower than in previous years, in part because conducting polls has become so expensive.
"One of the complaints often made is that particular polls are given undue prominence or they're sensationalised; because they're so expensive, they've been paid for by news organisations, so they better generate a good headline.
"There is probably some validity to that complaint on occasion. In an ideal world, we'd have regular polling all the time from multiple pollsters which would give us that bigger picture. But because we don't have that, it means that we as reporters have to be careful around our coverage, and it's important that our reporting comes with some caution and some caveats ... it is a solitary poll, it is just a moment in time, so it is more instructive to look at the trends."
Hear more about what the current polling means by listening to the full episode.
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