The domestic economy is continuing to pick up pace and drive growth, but economists warn against forgetting about the global scene.
The drivers of the world economy have changed recently, with activity weakening in the emerging economies while developed nations are starting to show more sustainable growth.
New Zealand has benefited from fast-growing Asian emerging countries since the global financial crisis, with a third of exports going there.
If Australia is included, which is even more dependent on Asia, the region's share swells to 57%.
Treasury chief economist Girol Karacaoglu said the slowdown in emerging economies may temper growth in New Zealand, at least in the short term.
"After the global financial crisis, once the larger economies responded to it by increasing their fiscal spending and easing their monetary policy, the emerging markets economies in Asia and others benefitted from that, and that was good for New Zealand because they're an increasing proportion of our external exports and trade," he said.
"What we are seeing in recent times, which is a feature that we highlighted this time, is that from the emerging economies now, the developed markets economies are starting to pick up a little bit, so that's evening out."
That was a slight negative for New Zealand in the short-term as a growing share of our exports were going to the economy markets, especially in Asia, Mr Karacaoglu said.
"But over the medium-term, it doesn't make any difference because when they grow then the emerging economies grow and we benefit anyway," he said.
"So by and large, I think the international is okay but still a risk factor for our economic outlook."
Mr Girol Karacaoglu warned risks remained for developed economies, including Europe's debt crisis and banking issues, Japan's efforts to boost its economy, and questions over the sustainability of the United States fiscal position and plans to reduce its monetary stimulus programme.
Meanwhile, Treasury was expecting strong economic activity in the second half of this year, due to robust domestic demand and a bounceback from the drought.
In its latest set of monthly economic indicators, it was picking growth to accelerate to about 1% in each of the September and December quarters, after modest gains in the first half of the year.