Eben Etzebeth of South Africa is tackled by Scott Barrett of New Zealand. Photo: Photosport
Did we think this was going to be the Rugby World Cup final match up? As New Zealanders, probably not, but here we are getting used to the fact that by lunchtime on Sunday the All Blacks could be world champions again. Not only that, but Ian Foster will likely have a 'Sir' added to the front of his name after effectively losing the All Black coaching role to Scott Robertson.
Just what will happen in that narrative will be extremely interesting, as will Foster's ultimate legacy. But that's a story for down the line, because there's the small matter of the final to take place first.
Team lists
All Blacks: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Tele'a, 10 Richie Mo'unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (c), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Bench: 16 Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Dalton Papali'i, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown
Springboks: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff
Bench: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Trevor Nyakane, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Jasper Wiese, 23 Willie le Roux
Foster's All Blacks side is mostly predictable, which it should be once you get to the end of a World Cup. In fact, it's the highest capped side to play in a final, helped a great deal by Samuel Whitelock and Brodie Retallick's 260 between them. They've swapped roles from the semi-final as most would have thought, with Whitelock's test career set to end when the full time whistle blows.
He won't be alone. The All Blacks are set to farewell a number of players, as they always do, but some might not even know it yet. One who has already played his last test is Dane Coles, in probably the only real conversation starter in Foster's selection. Samisoni Taukei'aho's inclusion at Coles' expense does go against Foster's logic a bit, although this certainly isn't the first time this has happened.
Dane Coles after winning the Quarter Final match Ireland v New Zealand All Blacks at the Rugby World Cup France 2023. Stade de France, Saint-Denis, France on Saturday 14 October 2023. Photo credit: Andrew Cornaga / www.photosport.nz Photo: Andrew Cornaga/www.photosport.nz
Taukei'aho is obviously an excellent player, but it really felt like the All Blacks had benefitted from having experience enter the fray, like in the crucial dying moments of the quarter-final against Ireland. Hooker is a skill position, Coles has seen and done it all before, including throwing into lineouts five metres out from either try line after the hooter has sounded. It seems odd that Foster would sacrifice that for some added bulk at the scrum.
It might be in response to the fact that the Springboks have rolled out a seven forwards-one back reserves bench. Jacques Nienabar and Rassie Erasmus have been tinkering all of the last two seasons, and when it comes off like at Twickenham in August, it provided the key to a stunning Springbok victory. The issue is that sometimes it doesn't - like at Mt Smart or Ellis Park last year. Could they be overthinking a tad?
One thing is for sure: it's pretty cool that two sides can make it this far into a World Cup with such radically different selection processes. Can you imagine if Foster had just biffed his starting first five in the week of a final? It shows that the game is open to the sort of alchemy that Nienabar and Erasmus are into, while also having room for simply leaving most of your starters on the field like Foster did against Ireland.
Photo: Ian Kington / AFP
There is a slight fallacy in thinking that the Boks will just go kick heavy and rely on set piece, which is something that is rooted in amateur era conceptions of the Springboks. Yes, last weekend they managed to play their part in the most stupefyingly dull one-point thriller of a semi-final, but they aren't dumb enough to play that way against the All Blacks.
Nienabar has already gone on record to say that they'll need 30 points to win and he's actually statistically correct. The Boks' last five wins against the All Blacks have seen them score an average of 30 points, the All Blacks' last five wins have seen them score 28. The highest aggregate of points between the two in the last decade was in 2018, which was a 36-34 Bok win in Wellington.
So really, the numbers are telling us it'll be a shootout. Just who is left standing at the end is incredibly tough to call.