Whakatane. Photo: Supplied
Whakatāne and Ōpōtiki townships face inundation and flooding, while Kawerau is looking at increased fire risk, according to a climate change risk assessment commissioned by Bay of Plenty Regional Council.
The report looked at two projections based on extreme and moderate estimates of how much the climate might change, to give snapshots of the region now, in 50 years and in 100 years.
Expected temperature changes bring with them fire, flood, drought, disease, pests, erosion and landslides, and that's without looking into the cascading effects of each, such as mental health risks for farmers and health issues due to changes in diet brought about through changes in what crops can be grown.
Climate and resilience specialist James Hughes, from consultants Tonkin & Taylor, presented the report to the Bay of Plenty Mayoral Forum last Friday, which has approved it for release to the public.
"We've got to stop building communities in places that are at risk," was Hughes' bottom line to the forum.
"That's probably easy to say, but at least we know where flood plains are and coastal inundation zones are, so that should be a signal to us to think hard about where we put new communities," he said.
Hughes emphasised the risk assessment was high-level and should not be used to assess risks at a detailed, local scale, but was a tool that could be used by district and city councils, iwi, industry groups and other organisations to inform more in-depth, focused assessments.
Ōpōtiki. Photo: By Ulrich Lange, Dunedin, New Zealand - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0
This said, it did summarise the risks to each of the various districts within the Bay of Plenty.
In the Eastern Bay, the key hazards include marine heatwaves; coastal erosion, inundation and flooding; increased temperature; drought; landslides; inland flooding; extreme weather and increased fire risk. Coastal communities such as Matatā, Whakatāne and Ōpōtiki are at risk of flooding, native ecosystems are at risk from erosion and temperature changes, and waterways and the ecosystems they house are at risk from increased sediment. Kawerau, which is often mentioned on television weather reports as recording New Zealand's highest temperatures, can expect more of these hot days, resulting in drought and increased risk of fire.
As well as communities, the assessment looked at risks to transport and industries such as forestry, agriculture and horticulture.
Farmers can expect increased flooding, droughts, heat stress for their stock and increases in pests and diseases. Reductions of winter chill are already becoming a risk factor for the kiwifruit industry as frosts are critical for kiwifruit budding.
The report also looked into the impacts of climate change for Māori and undertook case studies on two marae, Maketu and Waiōhau.
Hughes notes that many marae in the Bay are in areas susceptible to coastal flooding.
Mayoral Forum chairwoman, Rotorua Lakes Council Mayor Tania Tapsell, welcomed the high-level risk assessment, explaining it is an important resource for the region.
Tapsell said for the first time the region had a solid foundation of information to collectively build upon and respond to climate change risks.
"This will help ensure we make well-informed decisions into the future" she said. "Regardless of where in the region you're standing, we're all looking to better understand the increasing influence climate change will have and factor this into our planning.
"Although climate change will affect the region differently, it's important we work together to get our heads around the existing challenges as well as the new ones it will present. This is not the beginning, and across the region a lot of work is already under way to understand and plan for a changing climate."
To read the Bay of Plenty Climate Change Risk Assessment, visit [boprc.govt.nz/environment/climate-change/regional-risk-assessment the regional council's website].
Local Democracy Reporting is Public Interest Journalism funded through NZ On Air.