In NZ First gained 2.5 to 5.8 percent - above the magic 5 percent threshold needed to re-enter Parliament without an electorate seat - in the poll. Photo: RNZ / Ella Stewart
Labour is facing a clear slump, with support eaten up by the Greens, NZ First and a small bump for National in the latest Taxpayers Union-Curia poll.
National and ACT would have the numbers to form a government - barely, with 61 seats - while NZ First would also back in Parliament on the opposition benches, on the poll's numbers.
The clearest trend was a four-point drop for Labour compared to the previous month, down to 27.1 percent, with the Greens taking most of that support - up 3.1 percentage points to 12 percent.
NZ First also gained 2.5 to 5.8 percent - above the magic 5 percent threshold needed to re-enter Parliament without an electorate seat.
Te Pāti Māori suffered, dropping back to 2.5 percent, though they would likely remain in Parliament by holding electorate seats.
- National: 34.9%, up 1.6 (44 seats)
- Labour: 27.1%, down 4 (34 seats)
- ACT: 13%, down 0.2 (17 seats)
- Green: 12%, up 3.1 (15 seats)
- NZ First: 5.8%, up 2.5 (seven seats)
- Te Pāti Māori: 2.5%, down 2.5 (three seats)
- Vision NZ: 1.1%, up 1.1
- TOP: 1.0%, up 0.7
- New Conservatives 0.6%, up 0.2
- Outdoors and Freedom 0.5%, up 0.5
- Democracy NZ 0.1%, down 1.8
Labour's Chris Hipkins and National's Christopher Luxon both rose in the preferred prime minister stakes - up 2 and 5 points respectively - to both sit at 25 percent.
ACT's David Seymour rose 1 point to 7 percent, equal with NZ First's Winston Peters who was up 3 points. Former Labour leader Jacinda Ardern remained in the rankings at 5 percent, while Green MP Chloe Swarbrick gained 2 points to 4 percent.
Luxon's deputy Nicola Willis was on 2.8 percent, Green co-leader James Shaw on 0.9 percent; Chris Bishop, Marmara Davidson and Leighton Baker were all on 0.8 percent, and Matt King was on 0.3 percent.
The poll took responses from 1000 eligible New Zealand voters, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel, with results weighted for gender, age and location, with a 3.1 percent margin of error at the 95 percent confidence interval.