Air New Zealand appeared to be the stand out in terms of post-Covid recovery. Photo: Unsplash / Douglas Bagg
The tourism and travel sector results are expected to show the industry's Covid recovery in full swing, but not quite back to pre-pandemic levels.
Some key players in the sector are due to release their full-year results, starting with Air New Zealand and Auckland Airport this week, and campervan operator Tourism Holdings next week.
Forsyth Barr head of research Andy Bowley said Air New Zealand and Tourism Holdings would be ones to watch as they responded to strong demand.
"It's those that are more exposed to the difference between supply and demand where they can leverage a pricing increase, which is being very evident in the aviation space or campervan rentals. Those are more likely to surprise on the upside than an airport which is much more leveraged to volume," he said.
Air New Zealand appeared to be the stand out in terms of post-Covid recovery, but Bowley said any company in the tourism and travel sector that has been able to make the most out of strong demand relative to supply has benefited.
The airline forecast its full-year earnings before tax and big one-off costs to be no less than $580 million.
Tourism Holdings forecast its net profit after tax to be above $48m, while Auckland Airport forecast its underlying profit to be between $125m and $145m.
Bowley said Auckland Airport was reliant on airlines to provide the capacity to help it return to pre-pandemic levels.
"The airlines have been held up by a number of issues over the course of the last 12 to 18 months in terms of that recovery path," he said.
"Be it recruiting or re-recruiting staff, so cabin crew, pilots, [or the] ability to get spare parts for aircraft, which is one of the issues they're facing more so now, than they were say 12 months ago."
Looking to the year ahead, Bowley said it may not be all smooth sailing for the sector, in particular for airlines.
"While demand has outstripped supply quite comfortably so far through the recovery, cyclical headwinds in the form of either a recession domestically or more pressing economic conditions in key source markets, will create arguably some challenges here," he said.