Roch Wamytan has secured his third consecutive presidency of New Caledonia's Congress.
The pro-independence Kanak leader registered a convincing victory on Wednesday securing 29 out of the 54 available votes for the speaker-like-role.
Roch Wamytan Photo: AFP or licensors
Anti-independence groups fielded two candidates; Virginie Ruffenach of the Rassemblement Party, the leading anti-independence party, who won 7 votes and Annie Qaeze of the Caledonie Ensemble Party won 6 votes. The balance was made up of 12 blank votes or abstentions.
The result is a significant boost for the independence aspirations of indigenous Kanaks given the historic election this month of Louis Mapou, the first pro-independence Kanak president of the French Territory's collegial government.
Wamytan's successful re-election also leaves a bad taste in the anti-independence camps who lost out on a potential deal to help overthrow him when they could not agree on a unity candidate to oppose him.
For some context, the general breakdown of the numbers in congress are; 26 pro-independence seats, 25 anti-independence seats and three seats held by the Pacific Awakening Party, representing mainly settlers of Wallisian and Futunian descent but also Tahitians.
Journalist Nic Maclellan, a longtime specialist on New Caledonian politics, explained that the Pacific Awakening Party had offered the anti-independence groups their three votes on the condition that they agreed on a single candidate to become the president (or speaker) of the Congress.
"There were attempts to forge a deal between the L'Avenir en confiance coalition, that is three anti-independence parties that are united together in a parliamentary group, and Philippe Gomès's Calédonie ensemble."
"They couldn't agree for various reasons on one candidate for the position and split the vote," Maclellan explained
This failure by anti-independence groups to unite had two consequences on the vote, the Pacific Awakening Party threw their support behind Roch Wamytan and 12 anti-independence politicians dropped blank votes or empty envelopes into the ballot box.
Photo: RNZ Pacific/ Walter Zweifel
The Bigger Picture
Holding both the presidency of the government and the speaker of congress roles is significant for the pro-independent Kanaks given that France has declared 12 December as the date for the third and final referendum on independence under the Noumea Accord.
The first vote was held on the 4 November 2018 marking 20 years after the signing of the accord in 1998. It was expected to be a resounding "no" to independence with some commentators predicting a 70:30 result in favour of the status quo. It ended up being 56.4% for No and 43.6% in favour of independence from France with a 81.01% voter turnout.
The second vote was held on 4 October 2020, the result - 53.26% voting no to independence from France and 46.74% voting yes with a slightly higher voter turnout of 85.69%.
Now while having a pro-independence president and speaker is good for the momentum of the Kanaks' decolonisation agenda heading into the third vote this year, Nic Maclellan points out that numerically they are still at a disadvantage when push comes to shove.
"The Kanak People have been made a minority in their own country after generations of settlement, colonial settlement and migration. At the last census Kanaks are still only about 40% of the population. There is a large Wallisian, Futunian and Tahitian community, people who came in the 1960s and a significant population of people of European heritage," said Nic Maclellan.
It is of course important to note that there is a restricted electoral roll used in the independence referenda and it is made up of indigenous Kanaks and includes only those non-Kanaks who have lived in New Caledonia continuously since 1994.
Just over 180,000 people are eligible, leaving tens of thousands of other residents off the roll, a subject of prolonged controversy.
But even with that taken into consideration, in order to guarantee a "yes" vote come December, Kanaks would need to convince at least some from the settler and migrant communities that independence from France is the best way forward for New Caledonia.
The New Caledonia congress. Photo: AFP
What is France's position?
Paris has recently released a comprehensive document outlining what either referendum result will mean come December.
Senior RNZ Pacific journalist Walter Zweifel has read the document and explains what it says will happen in case of another "No" vote.
"Paris says this would not mean the status quo but usher in a new chapter in French/New Caledonian relations. Paris says it will recognise the vote's outcome and any unilateral declaration of independence would not be recognised."
Zweifel said Paris also clearly outlined what its actions will be in case of a yes vote.
"Opting for full independence now would mean the transfer of the remaining powers to New Caledonia. They concern defence, internal security and policing, the judiciary, monetary policy and foreign affairs. These raise many issues. which are complex and not easily worked through."
He said what is clear is that France says it would recognise the voters' verdict and there would be a transition period to the declaration of a new state.
"France would cease to be financially responsible for key state functions, for example for the thousands of people in the judiciary and the police and the military."
"The sums in question are in the range of two billion dollars a year. France says all its international treaties and commitments which now include New Caledonia would lapse, meaning the new state would have to re-establish its own links with the international community."