By Fiona Blackwood for the ABC
Emperor penguins will become effectively extinct by 2100 if Antarctic sea ice continues to decline at current rates due to global warming, a new report predicts.
Emperor penguins at Cape Crozier on Ross Island. The photo was taken in mid November when the chicks were about half-grown. Photo: RNZ / Alison Ballance
Australian Antarctic Division seabird ecologist Barbara Wienecke, who co-authored the paper that appears in the journal Global Change Biology, said the finding was "absolutely devastating".
"Our study is, unfortunately, the bearer of bad news," she said.
There are 60 known colonies of emperor penguins in Antarctica.
It is estimated there are around 236,000 breeding pairs.
"Under the worst scenario, we could indeed lose 98 percent of them by the end of the century," Dr Wienecke said.
The study modelled different greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the impact on Antarctic sea ice.
Emperor penguins rely on sea ice as a breeding platform, and for feeding.
"There are all indications that the sea ice will reduce or it will become more unpredictable in its duration [in the future]," Dr Wienecke said.
Sea ice is crucial for emperor penguins. Photo: AFP / Biosphoto
'Little fluff balls' won't survive in ocean when ice melts
She said emperor penguins were highly adapted to life on the ice, meaning if their habitat disappeared, the birds would disappear with it.
The study found that if sea ice declined at the rates projected by climate models, there would be a gradual decrease in emperor penguin populations until about 2040.
"After that, the demise of the emperors is going to speed up quite dramatically," Dr Wienecke said.
She said some colonies were already struggling to cope with changing sea ice conditions.
"I personally know of a couple of areas, where the sea ice has broken out well before the penguin chicks were ready to fledge," she said.
"So you've got little fluff balls, who cannot look after themselves … who are entirely reliant on food from their parents, who are not waterproof.
"They couldn't go into the ocean and survive even if they wanted to."
Young emperor penguins find it difficult to survive in the ocean, an ecologist says. Photo: AFP / Biosphoto
AAD chief scientist Nicole Webster, who was not involved in the study, said the report was "disturbing".
"Antarctica is one of the fastest-changing environments on our planet and as the climate changes, more and more species are at risk of adverse outcomes," she said.
Professor Webster said there was a proposal to have the emperor penguin listed under the US Endangered Species Act.
"That's one of the most rigorous, strict legal processes for helping threatened and endangered species," she said.
"By listing a species under that act, we can start to look at things like protecting their habitat ... actually buying them time while we adapt to climate change."
A pair of emperor penguins with their eggs at Adélie Land in the Antarctic. Photo: AFP / Biosphoto
'What on Earth are we going to do about this?'
Dr Wienecke has been studying emperor penguins for close to 30 years.
"They're extraordinary. The longer one looks at emperor penguins, the more one is amazed by their capabilities," she said.
"They are just wonderful characters; they all have their little personalities.
"When one considers the environment in which they live, they're standing on their bare feet on ice and they're literally living in what most of us would consider the worst possible environment."
She said the emperor penguin had evolved to survive the harshest conditions, and the loss of sea ice would not be the only issue for the species in the future.
"When temperatures start to increase the birds are more likely to become heat stressed more frequently," she said.
She said she and the co-authors of the paper were aghast at the findings of the study.
"You sort of as a private citizen ask yourself, 'What on Earth are we going to do about this?'" she said.
"A horrible option would be to try and collect a lot of emperor penguins and take them back home and stick them into zoos."
Dr Wienecke said addressing greenhouse gas emissions was the key.
"Then there is a chance that a least a number of the colonies will have an increased chance to survive," she said.
"There will still be losses. Even if we were to stop burning the last bit of coal right now, we would still lose emperor penguins."
Australia is currently involved in an international process to review the conservation status of emperor penguins in Antarctica and mechanisms for their protection.
This scientific review would inform the possible listing of emperor penguins as a 'specially protected species' under the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty.
The scientific paper states that the need for legal recognition and enhanced precautionary management for emperor penguins is now urgent, particularly given the continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions.
- ABC