Shoppers at Sylvia Park, Auckland, on Boxing Day 2025. Photo: Ke-Xin Li / RNZ
A disappointing end to 2025 could mean disaster for some retailers who had been just holding on, one economist says.
Data from Worldline shows that spending across its payment network through December was below the levels recorded a year earlier.
Consumer spending processed through all core retail merchants in 2025 reached $4.702 billion, which was down 0.2 percent on December 2024.
The biggest decline was in Wellington, which was down 3.7 percent. Bay of Plenty was down 2.6 percent while Whanganui was up 4.1 percent.
Chief sales officer Bruce Proffit said the data showed a tough retailing environment over the last month of the year.
"There was more spending at food and liquor stores in Worldline's network across December, which is consistent with generally higher food prices and people prioritising the essentials in their budgets," he said.
Food and liquor merchant spending was up 4 percent year-on-year in December, similar to the 4.4 percent food price inflation rate reported in November.
Spending across the other retailers was down 4.4 percent.
Proffit said there was more spending online.
"The online spending processed through Worldline was up +18.9 percent in December. This pattern is likely to be repeated amongst other online payments systems, judging by earlier reports and international patterns."
Boxing Day non-food shopping reached $51m, down 12.4 percent on Boxing Day 2024.
"Boxing Day was generally a busier day for clothing merchants, but for most other non-food stores in our network, their busiest days were still in the two days prior to Christmas Day," Proffit said.
He said it was clear that Boxing Day spending was not as high as Black Friday, when sales hit $55.6m.
Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub said it was tough news for retailers.
"For a lot of businesses this should be their saving grace."
Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub. Photo: Screengrab / Facebook
He said this period of the economic cycle was when a lot of businesses started to hit trouble.
"Right now there's not a lot of inflation in the retail sector because nothing is increasing, right? Input costs aren't increasing, wage costs aren't increasing, profits aren't increasing. But it's a long time between drinks if you're a business, not to have profits.
"You can hold on for a long time but if those good months around Christmas and summer don't turn up then it's really hard because a lot of the sales are concentrated in those last couple of months for some industries.
"For those industries, that's where they make most of their profits. Costs are fairly well distributed through the year but sales are concentrated so profits are concentrated, so if the sales don't turn up then a lot of businesses might find themselves with extra stock."
Carolyn Young, chief executive at Retail NZ, said it showed how tough it was to be a retailer.
She said recent announcements of the planned closure of EB Games and the liquidation of the Yoyoso group highlighted this.
"The retail sector has been under significant strain over the last two to three years, with businesses advising that they have been absorbing as many cost increases as they can, working harder than ever as margins are being squeezed, which have created significant challenges for businesses to remain open. We will be hoping for a brighter economy and positive consumer confidence in 2026."
She said shoppers could help by ensuring they made their purchases with local retailers.
"Either in New Zealand or online but making sure they are New Zealand stores you're buying from that keeps the economy going in New Zealand. That's critically important."
She said growth in the tourism sector would also help to get international money into New Zealand people buying and spending.
"We need further economic growth and job growth. We've been in a period of unemployment, we've seen unemployment rising, people are still concerned about job security.
"So until we've got greater confidence in our job position and you know it's going to be a challenge for individuals to feel confident about being able to spend on something rather than putting it aside in case they don't have a job. There's still more to do in terms of the economy."
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