All Blacks: What de Groot’s exclusion could mean in the long run

All Blacks v England

Kick-off: 4:10am Sunday 3 November (NZT)

Allianz Stadium (Twickenham), London

Live blog updates on RNZ Sport

Analysis - Ethan de Groot is in the naughty corner, but for what we don't know. Whatever the prop has done to be dropped is a mystery (for now), so where it sits on the All Black Disgrace-O-Meter could be anywhere between a Mark Tele'a night out and a Keith Murdoch assault allegation, but it does point to a clear hardening of Scott Robertson's attitude towards team rules.

Back in July, news that Damian McKenzie had missed a team bus from San Diego to Los Angeles after the All Blacks' one-off test against Fiji was confirmed, then more or less dismissed by Robertson. McKenzie had to make his own way to LAX for the flight back home, apparently at great expense, but wasn't stood down and went on to start the next six tests.

Yes, England at Twickenham is a tad more important than Fiji in San Diego, but it says a bit that Robertson is willing to swing the axe on a player that has been a regular starter for almost three seasons now.

However, there's more to this selection change than meets the eye. The massive Tamaiti Williams comes in to replace de Groot and his work rate around the park lately can be described along the same lines. He scored his second test try last weekend against Japan, but really should've marked off that achievement in Sydney during the first Bledisloe Cup test. Had it not been for an errant bit of judgement by McKenzie, Williams would've cantered over after impressively hustling downfield and keeping up with a sweeping All Black counterattack.

So really, de Groot's indiscretion may well end up being a bit more far reaching, given that both Williams and the previously unheralded Pasilio Tosi are making a serious case for a monster All Black front row going forward. Both men weigh almost 300kg between them, offer plenty away from the set piece and both have plenty of playing years ahead of them. Tosi's ball-handling and offloading ability has been excellent, which is not much of a surprise considering he used to be a number eight.

The irony of course is that while Robertson was unsurprisingly cagey when asked about the circumstances of de Groot's omission and gave little away, he could've just said Williams was picked on form and that would've been the end of it from his point of view.

However, when the game kicks off it's highly likely attention will shift pretty quickly to Beauden Barrett. The 131-test veteran is now the preferred starter at first five, McKenzie drops back to a bench role, and will have to contend with the much talked about English rush defence. There's also been a lot talked about Cam Roigard's running game and how that may have propelled him straight back into the starting side, but that is presumably being saved for when the English pack have been run around the field.

Barrett will have Cortez Ratima inside him, a halfback who possesses a somewhat overlooked running game of his own. He scored nine tries in Super Rugby Pacific for the Chiefs, so should hopefully provide a constant threat around the ruck. That can keep the inside channels static to guard up against him, providing Barrett with a bit more room to move.

Robertson has also opted for Will Jordan at fullback, over simply shifting McKenzie back there or starting Stephen Perofeta. The Blues utility was the preferred choice for the first July test against England and certainly did nothing wrong, so this does signal a shift towards a Barrett/Jordan axis.

That of course means a stroke of good luck for Mark Tele'a, who finds himself on the right wing despite struggling to recapture his test form of the previous two seasons. This will be a big test for him, Jordan and Caleb Clarke on both sides of the ball, because their English opposites will be brimming with confidence after the last time the sides met.

It's hard not to think the unfortunate main story of the week won't be playing on the minds of both teams, though. The traditional controversy that arises when the All Blacks play England got turned up a notch this week, drawing the usual sort of extremism from a rugby discourse that is in no way immune to the increasingly volatile nature of social media in 2024. The haka will be met with the Twickenham roar of 'Swing Low', which is their custom, after which the teams can simply get on with doing what they're there for - playing footy.

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