With less than two days before the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) meets for its most significant meeting, member states are already showing signs of a major divide on the level of ambition needed to align the shipping industry with the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees.
Almost a dozen Pacific islands (6PAC Plus), including the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands,Tuvalu, Nauru, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa and Tonga, this week made calls at the IMO's Intersessional Working Group on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships (ISWG-GHG 15) to steer the shipping industry on a clear path to climate action.
The Pacific nations have been advocating for IMO to fully decarbonise the sector by 2050 and to support their proposal for a global greenhouse gas (GHG) levy - supported by New Zealand - as part of its economic measures, which has been projected to generate much needed revenue to end the shipping industry's reliance on fossil fuels - coal, gas, and oil - and to support vulnerable countries who are disproportionately impacted by climate change.
While making an intervention on Wednesday, Samoa said: "We believe that the [greenhouse gas] levy is essential if we are to ensure that this transition is going to be equitable to all."
"The main aim of the levy is, and should be, to incentivise and speed up the transition by reducing the price difference between fossil fuel and zero GHG alternatives.
"In addition to this, it has the potential to generate significant revenues which can be used to address disproportionate negative impacts, as well as research, development and deployment of alternative zero GHG fuels and technologies."
But as the curtains fell on the week of "heavy lifting", there are concerns that several countries are resisting increasing ambitions and lowering the expectation for international shipping - responsible for 3 percent of the world's carbon emissions - to align with the 1.5 degrees target.
The ISWG-GHG 15 has developed the draft text of the Revised IMO 2023 GHG Strategy ahead of the eightieth session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 80) meeting next week.
MEPC would be invited to consider and finalise the draft text when they meet from Monday, according to the IMO.
"The Revised IMO GHG Strategy will contain concrete greenhouse gas reduction targets for the sector and is expected to outline a basket of technical and economic measures to be developed to set global shipping on an ambitious path towards phasing out greenhouse gas emissions," the UN agency said.
The final adoption of the revised strategy is anticipated for next Friday.
Tuvalu has urged the UN regulator to ensure an equitable transition "is actually delivered on."
"As it stands, this is not reflected in the [revised strategy] vision or the levels of ambition in any direct and meaningful way. There is simply no more time. Ambiguity is no longer constructive. Decisive, immediate action is called for if a relevant international strategy is what we desire."
But while Pacific nations continue to remain vocal and call for greater political will, Australia has chosen to turn the other way and does not support their proposal on the GHG levy.
Australia has instead become part of the countries that are accused of blocking progress at IMO, which include countries such as China, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.
According to climate NGOs, the text of the revised strategy has been weakened due to pressure from certain countries "resisting 1.5 degrees-aligned action."
"While the paper does propose interim emission reduction of 20 percent emission reduction by 2030, and 70 percent by 2040, this is not ambitious enough to meet the 1.5 degree goal, according to the science-based targets, and the language has been watered down from "targets" to "indicative check points" at the demand of China and others," Clean Shipping Coalition said.
University College London's Maritime Advisory Services policy lead Dr Aly Shaw said: "Like the emissions they [countries] hope to reduce, much remains in the air after this week's IMO negotiations on the Revised GHG Strategy and candidate measures, and like some of the most vulnerable climate areas, the Members states too, found themselves poles apart on key issues."
"As all eyes turn to MEPC 80, the Member States must strive to deliver a strategy that is 1.5- degrees aligned and committed to a just and equitable transition for shipping."