PNG Prime Minister James Marape and Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama at the Joint Supervisory Body meeting in Port Moresby this week. Photo: Autonomous Bougainville Government
A crucial, final leg of the process to decide Bougainville's future political status has begun, but uncertainty remains over how it will play out.
Representatives of Papua New Guinea and Bougainville held talks this week in Port Moresby over the future of the autonomous region's political status, and agreed that the issue will be taken to the PNG national parliament by June next year for deliberations on a final decision.
This week's meeting of the Joint Supervisory Body (JSB) was the latest in a series of discussions over implementation of the process following Bougainville's 2019 independence referendum. The non-binding referendum resulted in an overwhelming vote for independence, but ultimately it is up to PNG's parliament to decide whether to ratify the result.
Concerns in Bougainville that PNG's leaders were dragging the chain on whether, and when, to ratify the result were allayed somewhat this week with the JSB's resolution, as announced by PNG Prime Minister James Marape.
"We are in the final leg in which the referendum result will go to parliament. We put a clear roadmap for the first six months of next year," Marape explained.
Speakers and clerks from both the PNG and Bougainville parliaments will establish a secessional order to map out the formal process ahead.
"The technical specifications of the secessional order as well as what happens on the floor of parliament will be defined properly in the next three months. We anticipate that before the first half of 2026 has lapsed, parliament - possibly in the second sitting - would receive and deliberate on the result," Marape said.
Sir Puka Temu Photo: RNZ Pacific / Johnny Blades
Nationwide consultations
This week's JSB meeting was the first since a PNG Parliamentary Bipartisan Committee concluded nationwide consultations on Bougainville's political future. The committee's findings will assist with the MPs' deliberations.
One of the Committee members, Sir Puka Temu, said there was a range of views on the issue, but noted people in other parts of PNG were open to the idea of Bougainvilleans becoming independent.
"When we went to Morobe, one of the biggest provinces in the country, the leaders came out and said 'give them independence'. When we went to East New Britain, they said 'give them independence but give us autonomy'," he said, while adding that national leaders in PNG are sensitive about setting a precedent for other parts of the country wishing to break away.
Sir Puka said the two governments have been adhering the Melanesian Agreement reached between PNG and Bougainville in New Zealand in June this year, in which both governments resolved "to craft and pursue a clear political pathway forward" on the referendum result as part of the Bougainville Peace Agreement.
However, he admitted that questions remain about the exact method by which PNG's parliament will decide on the ratification.
"And that's where the secessional order designed by the two speakers may clarify whether we vote or not, and if we vote is it a simple majority or a two-thirds absolute majority like we do with constitutional amendments."
Sir Puka also said questions remain about what follows the vote.
"If parliament says yes, how do we manage the process towards independence? Because Bougainville hasnt got the institutional capacity or economy capacity to be given independence straight away."
Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape, on the left, attended the swearing-in of the fifth Bougainville House of Representatives in October 2025. Photo: NBC Bougainville - Maus Blong Sankamap
Lingering tensions
The latest talks took place amid lingering tensions between the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG) and PNG's national government, with President Ishmael Toroama telling Marape and others at the meeting about his concern that JSB resolutions were being rendered irrelevant.
He cited the example of the channelling of Restoration and Development Funds intended for Bougainville - around 100 million kina a year (approx. NZ$40m) - through the MP representing the region in the PNG national parliament, rather than directly to the ABG.
"It is therefore deeply concerning that in this matter, though initiated by the ABG through the courts, the Regional Member for Bougainville and your state Minister has chosen to actively defend against the implementation of JSB-endorsed decisions on this funding," Toroama said.
"His public statements that the JSB Resolutions does not change the law, reflects a total disregard for the sanctity and constitutionality of the JSB as the legitimate body from which the Prime Minister's Commitment funds originate. Such actions risk undermining the JSB's authority. This is very dangerous and has the potential to be perilous to the peace process and to the constitutionality of the JSB itself."
Toroama even warned that if the JSB continued to be sidelined, it could imperil PNG national elections elections taking place in Bougainville in 2027.
"I will state here that whilst national MPs from Bougainville may want to use any and all state resources at their disposal in preparation for the 2027 elections, let me go on record here and plainly state that there may not be national elections on Bougainville in 2027."
But the JSB talks this week resolved this funding issue, Sir Puka said, with Marape assuring that the funds would now go direct to the ABG as it wished.
Sources close to the ABG also confirmed to RNZ Pacific that the leadership was satisfied with PNG's response to the president's concerns and the outcome of the JSB meeting, that PNG's parliament will be ready to the ratification decision by June next year.
However, the question of whether PNG approves of Bougainville's independence remains very much open. For Bougainvlle, the question must not be delayed any more.
The need for a decision to happen before the end of the current parliament was underlined by Sir Puka who admitted that as new, younger MPs enter parliament there will be less institutional memory of the Bougainville crisis, its civil war and all the relevant history leading up to the peace process. Even among the current batch of MPs, there are gaps in knowledge of the unique context of Bougainville.
Sir Puka said a booklet was being prepared as an educational tool to raise awareness among the MPs about Bougvinaille's history, in order to ensure there is informed decision-making behind the major question the national parliament is expected to answer.