By John Salong*, Vanuatu
A child standing on top of what is left of a house structure following Cyclone Judy. Photo: World Vision
Opinion - Growing up in Vanuatu, I knew our country was in the ring of fire when it comes to volcanic and seismic activities.
But when twin cyclones Judy and Kevin made landfall within 48 hours of each other in 2023, causing widespread devastation, it dawned on me we'd arrived at a 'new normal' when it comes to our vulnerability to increased frequency and severity of natural disasters.
Vanuatu being battered by cyclones are not uncommon but this hit differently. It was yet another scary reminder that climate risks and impacts are intensifying - where our people, communities can no longer feel safe.
Anything can happen, anytime. This is our lived reality in Vanuatu. Our new normal. And this why as the world gears up for COP29 in Azerbaijan, the government and the people of Vanuatu continue to amplify the call for "1.5 to stay alive", to ensure our efforts for survival are not in vain. We believe COP29 is yet another opportunity to collaborate and urge our global partners to act with urgency to safeguard the lives of the people of Vanuatu, and everyone around the world, who depend on it.
Our lived reality on the ground in Vanuatu in relation to climate change is clearly backed by Science. Recent reports confirm that 2023 was the warmest year on record in terms of global average temperatures. Projections indicate a 95 percent probability that 2024 will surpass this record, with the first six months of 2024 each setting new temperature records.
This alarming trend has resulted in sixty-three countries experiencing their warmest June on record. What's more, record levels of ocean heat and acidification, rising sea levels, heatwaves, floods, droughts, and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones are causing widespread misery and chaos, disrupting daily life in Vanuatu and for many communities around the world.
Photo: VBTC
Often, there is very little time for the country to recover from one extreme event before another brings more destruction to an already suffering population. As you read this, our country is still trying to pick up the pieces, and while at it, we are again bracing for the arrival of the new cyclone season in 2024.
To say climate change has increased the intensity and frequency of these natural disasters is an understatement. The reality is that Pacific island countries such as Vanuatu bear the brunt of the force, despite contributing the least to the greenhouse gases that have warmed our planet and put us on a path that will lead to our islands being uninhabitable in the future.
We cannot afford to normalise these record-breaking temperatures annually, as this trajectory threatens our long-term existence, and our global goal of limiting temperature rise to below 1.5°C. Vanuatu is committed to continuing our efforts to address the triple planetary crisis, particularly climate change, in collaboration with all parties in COP29. It also why the Government of Vanuatu is leading a group of States calling on the UN General Assembly to refer a request to the UN's International Court of Justice (ICJ), for an
'advisory opinion' seeking to clarify what the legal obligations of countries all over the world are under international law when it comes to climate action, and specify any consequences they should face for inaction.
The outcome could have major knock-on effects in terms of countries' obligations around climate-harming emissions and human rights. It would open up the possibility that international climate commitments can be legally enforced. The decision by the Government of Vanuatu is a result of sheer frustration at the global community's rhetoric and action, or rather the lack of it, on climate change.
The clock is ticking and the science is clear - the frequency and intensity of these natural disasters will only increase in a world beyond 1.5 degrees. In an extreme scenario, more than 1m or even 2m of sea level rise cannot be ruled out this century, if rapid ice sheet melt is triggered.
But we can avoid the worst of it. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C could drastically limit global sea level rise to between 0.28 and 0.55 m by 2100. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reaffirmed the huge difference in impacts between 1.5C and 2 degrees of warming. In the long-run, up to 3 metres of sea level rise can be avoided if we limit warming to 1.5˚C instead of 2˚C.
COP29 is a critical juncture in history. We welcomed the establishment of the Loss and Damage fund at the COP28 in Dubai, but we recognise that it will take time for this funding to reach the communities and people who are the most vulnerable and most affected by this climate crisis. Time that we do not have.
John Salong Photo: Supplied / SPREP
The operationalisation of the fund will also beg the question of how we put a value on things that are not material, such as the loss of culture and identity due to relocation - leaving behind the land that has sustained our livelihoods in harmony with our cultures because the impacts of the climate crisis have deemed them uninhabitable. Then there is also the loss of life - how do you put a dollar value on a human life?
Vanuatu and Pacific countries will continue to walk the talk. As a champion for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, we know that phasing out of fossil fuels and transitioning to renewable energy generation holds the key to tackle climate change, and achieve the 1.5 temperature goal, which the world is coming dangerously close to losing with each year of inaction.
At COP29, I urge you to remember the people of Vanuatu, and everyone around the world, whose 'new normal' is a life of fear caused by climate change!
*John Salong is Vanuatu's Minister of Climate Change Adaptation, Meteorology & Geo-Hazards, Energy, Environment and Disaster Management. Vanuatu is the Chair of the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS).