By Peter Wilson*
Christopher Luxon, left, and Rawiri Waititi. Photo: RNZ
Analysis: Christopher Luxon rules out working with Te Pāti Māori and launches a "coalition of chaos" attack on Labour, Meka Whaitiri's controversial return to Parliament, National sets a donations record and ACT gains a high profile election candidate.
National's leader ruled out working with Te Pāti Māori after the election this week.
Thank goodness for that. No more "Poll shows Maori Party could be kingmaker" headlines, no more not quite ruling it out from Luxon, no more "leaving the door ajar" reports.
Now we're clear on what the election means: a National/ACT government or a Labour/Greens and possibly Te Pāti Māori coalition.
Luxon made his move on Wednesday, and he clearly wanted everyone to know about it.
He told Morning Report and other radio and television networks, then issued a media statement and then held a press conference.
So there's not any doubt, here's the quote from the statement: "National has ruled out coming to any arrangement with Te Pāti Māori in forming a National-led government after the 2023 election."
The "any arrangement" is important, because it rules out a confidence and supply deal as well as a coalition.
And while it never seemed possible that National could reach any sort of accommodation with Te Pāti Māori, that might not have been so clear outside the world of politics - where most people live - and Luxon's statement told voters precisely what their choices will be in October.
It was, as the New Zealand Herald's political editor Claire Trevett said, "naked politics… it was aimed at damaging Labour".
She also thought it marked the day Luxon became "an actual politician, rather than a businessman trying on a politician's suit".
It was definitely aimed at damaging Labour, and it could cause some pain.
Christopher Luxon looked more of a politician than a businessman "trying on a politician's suit", one commentator said this week. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
It freed up Luxon to use the "coalition of chaos" line, which he did, intended to show the alternative to a solid National/ACT government as an unstable Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori mishmash.
There is still a possible wild card - New Zealand First, but that hand won't be dealt until the election, if it is dealt at all.
Former party leader Peter Dunne put it very well on Newshub's AM Show when he said Luxon had thrown down the gauntlet to Prime Minister Chris Hipkins to say what Labour's attitude to Te Pāti Māori was.
"I think what Luxon is calculating upon is that the sort of voters he's after, they will be quite happy not to be involved with Te Pāti Māori and if they see the Labour Party not ruling them out, then they may well start to drift from Labour to National," Dunne said.
The Herald's Thomas Coughlan saw it in a very similar way.
"There is one data point we don't have, which is how off-putting Te Pāti Māori is to voters that might swing from Labour to National and clinch the election, and that is what this is all about," he said.
Payoff for Te Pāti Māori supporters
Meka Whaitiri and Rawiri Waititi speak to reporters after the latter was thrown out of Parliament. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Luxon made his announcement the day after Te Pāti Māori brought its latest recruit, former minister Meka Whaitiri, back to Parliament, entering the debating chamber with a noisy whakawatea and disrupting a debate on the Coronation.
Co-leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer were booted out by Speaker Adrian Rurawhe because they didn't have permission to stage their show.
It may not have impressed many Pākeha voters, but it wasn't put on for them.
"For Te Pāti Māori, this couldn't have played out much better," Stuff's Glenn McConnell reported.
"It's a great look for the decolonisation party to interrupt a discussion that aims to congratulate the Crown. To do so with haka and waiata, and then be booted from the House because of that, will be celebrated by Te Pāti Māori base."
Taking up Dunne's point, it's very unlikely Hipkins will rule out working with Te Pāti Māori because unless Labour and the Greens can pull it off he's going to need them.
But while it's often assumed there could be a viable three-way coalition of the left, it's by no means certain Labour could negotiate a deal.
It would be excruciatingly difficult, if not impossible.
Te Pāti Māori is a lot more hardline than it was when Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia were running it and John Key signed them up in 2008.
Party president John Tamihere set out bottom lines for Te Pāti Māori's support in an interview with Stuff, and they indicate just how unlikely a three-way coalition is.
A wealth tax and removing GST from food. That might be doable.
But becoming "militarily neutral" and leaving the Five Eyes intelligence gathering pact with the US, the UK, Canada and Australia? There's no way Labour would do that. Having the smallest party in Parliament setting foreign policy at that level would be ridiculous and utterly unacceptable.
And then there was the monarchy. Tamihere said he wanted "a grown-up conversation" about New Zealand's relationship. "Camilla and bloody Charles are great for the Poms but they've got nothing in common with me."
Overall, it wasn't a good week for Labour.
It had to watch former minister Whaitiri's triumphant return to Parliament as an independent, although she's really part of Te Pāti Māori, and listen to her tell the House that she now felt she was no longer a "censured" Māori woman MP.
It also watched former Green Party MP Elizabeth Kerekere enter to sit as an independent after quitting at the weekend.
Although her return was low key compared with Whaitiri's, the upset within the Greens' caucus has been used by National as another example of instability on the left.
The recent ructions led to some negative commentary.
"Signs Labour is fraying at the edges" was the headline over Stuff political editor Luke Malpass' article.
"The sheen provided by the Hipkins ascendancy is quickly wearing off as politics roars on into the election," he said.
"There is no doubt the intensity of the past few years has left Labour looking like a government that has held the treasury benches for significantly longer than six years."
And the Herald's Coughlan again: "Hipkins management of his own party and the wider left bloc does look careless at the moment, even if it isn't."
Chris Hipkins returned from the Coronation in London to plenty of negative headlines. Photo: Supplied/ Andrew Parsons / Kensington Palace
National's donations 'pretty extraordinary'
The latest Taxpayers Union-Curia poll showed National and ACT would win enough seats to form a government if an election was held now.
As reported by RNZ, National would have 46 seats and ACT 16 for a combined 62, making it comfortably able to form a government.
A second poll, conducted by Talbot Mills for corporate clients and reported by the Herald, showed National/ACT and Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori with 60 seats each.
The Herald also reported on political donations for 2022, released by the Electoral Commission, which showed National raised more than $5 million compared with Labour's $419,364.
After National, the next largest sum was declared by ACT, just over $2m.
Max Rashbrooke, of Victoria University's Institute of Governance and Policy Studies, said National's take represented the first time any party had broken through the $5m level.
"It's pretty extraordinary to see that outside an election year. It's an extraordinary sum of money," he said.
ACT had its share of good news as well when Andrew Hoggard announced he was giving up his role as president of Federated Farmers and would stand for ACT in Rangitikei.
He said farming was down in the dumps and he hoped he would have a chance to give the sector a strong voice in Parliament, RNZ reported.
National played it down, with agriculture spokesman Todd McClay saying his party hadn't lost the farmer base at all.
"Andrew's been signalling that he's been going to ACT for some time… it won't be a surprise for anybody."
This week's last word goes to Sam Stubbs, a rich man and a regular Stuff contributor.
He's come up with a way to tax the rich that doesn't involve a capital gains tax or anything like it.
"The one thing that unites the wealthy is that they love buying things. Cars, planes, boats, champagne, designer clothes, you name it," he said.
"So how do we get the rich to pay more tax? By using the laws we already have.
"Any increase in GST will be unavoidable for the rich. They will simply pay more tax.
"A GST increase from 15 per cent to 20 per cent would mean another $12.3 billion in taxes, which could be entirely offset by lifting the tax bands for everyone.
"The effect could be net-zero for everyone except the rich, who would pay more in GST."
*Peter Wilson is a life member of Parliament's press gallery, 22 years as NZPA's political editor and seven as parliamentary bureau chief for NZ Newswire.