The case for COPs (even this one)

Analysis - Every day this week, COP29 has managed to spark international headlines for all the wrong reasons.

First, the eight-hour agenda fight over what, actually, diplomats will spend time negotiating this year.

Then on Tuesday the President of Azerbaijan, which is hosting COP29 in the capital Baku, called oil and gas a "gift of God" and denounced "fake news" media for reporting on human rights abuses.

President Aliyev doubled down the next day, denouncing France's colonial "crimes" in the Pacific, prompting an announcement on Thursday that the French environment minister would no longer be attending.

Come Friday, it turns out that 1773 of the delegates wandering the halls with us are, in fact, lobbyists for the fossil fuel industry. Oh, and somewhere in there, Argentina's entire delegation was recalled by its far-right, climate-denying president.

On the substantive issues, diplomats are hardly any closer to a deal on new global climate finance goals, while carbon trading talks have stalled after an early step forward.

It's easy to understand why some environmentalists have become disillusioned with the process. That includes, as of Friday, a former head of the UN's climate programme and a former UN Secretary-General.

An open letter to all parties to the UN climate treaty, the current head of the climate programme and the current Secretary-General was published by a list of luminaries. Chief among them were Christiana Figueres, who led the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change from the failed Copenhagen talks to the successful signing of the Paris Agreement, and former Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who oversaw the process.

"It is now clear that the COP is no longer fit for purpose. Its current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity," the letter stated.

The leaders have called for a "fundamental overhaul of the COP", arguing petrostates shouldn't be permitted to host the events, scientists need a greater voice and stronger controls on corporate interests - like fossil fuel lobbyists.

It's not the first call for a reform of the climate negotiations system. With the Paris Agreement signed and almost all of the underlying rules now settled and put in place, streamlining the COP is an increasingly common topic of discussion.

At COP29, there are 104 separate agenda items. A few of these big things are the new finance goal, carbon trading rules, and guidance for setting the next round of Paris targets. But there's also a host of dialogues, mechanisms, procedures, arrangements and other bureaucratic terms under discussion.

The case for reform is clear, but it has in some cases been picked up and turned into an attack on the current process. Figueres quickly clarified that this wasn't the intent of the open letter, despite its strong wording.

"The COP process is an essential and irreplaceable vehicle for supporting the multilateral, multisectoral, systemic change we urgently need. Now more than ever," she said later on Friday.

The process has had remarkable successes, even if much more is still needed.

In 2015, when the Paris Agreement was signed, then government policies put the world on track for a catastrophic 3.6C of warming.

The draft pledges submitted by governments as part of the agreement would have brought that down to a (still disastrous) 2.7C.

Now, according to Climate Action Tracker, current policies have the world on track for that same 2.7C. And the most ambitious targets, if met, would keep warming just barely below 2C.

COPs have also succeeded in mobilising tens of billions of dollars of climate finance to help developing countries decarbonise and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Here too, more is needed - and that's one of the main goals of COP29 this year. But, it's not clear that this would have occurred without a multilateral effort like the COP.

There are other fora where climate change is discussed. The G20 will be meeting next week, for example. But, those most affected by climate impacts and those most in need of finance aren't G20 members. A forum where all the world's countries come together on (theoretically) equal footing gives the most vulnerable among us a voice.

"Other spaces where things are discussed in the context of climate change, where we're seeing a lot more prominence being placed on climate finance - for example, the Group of 20 - we're not a part of that. We are not a part of those discussions," Michai Robertson, the lead finance negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, told reporters on Friday.

"So it's extremely important for forums like the UNFCCC to continue to exist and continue to be legitimate.

"You have the G20 over in one corner, you have the BRICs over in another corner and we're seeing persons going to these different other corners as opposed to the legitimate corners where all of us can be around the table.

"While others may have their criticisms of the COP process, it's extremely important for us, because that is the only time that our voice can be clearly heard."

This COP has only raised further questions about the suitability of the COP framework, however. Aliyev's praise of fossil fuels and undiplomatic attacks on other nations have set the conference off to a bad start.

On Wednesday, Azerbaijan also signed a new oil and gas deal with Slovakia. The chief executive of the COP conference was caught on video using his role to entice fossil fuel investors.

That nearly 2000 fossil fuel lobbyists are also in attendance here, the second largest figure of any COP, prompted further critiques.

"It's more than all of the delegates from the 10 most climate-vulnerable nations combined. We know why this COP fails. It fails because these walls were built not by the people but for, by and because of the big polluters and the Global North governments who have caused this crisis," said Rachel Rose Jackson of the Kick Big Polluters Out campaign.

Notwithstanding these critiques of the event, advocates for developing countries say the work ongoing at the COP is too important to put down.

"The fight against climate change is not an 'either-or' situation. We have no choice but to be here, we need this process to work," Joseph Sikulu, the Pacific director for 350.org and a member of the Pacific Climate Warriors, told Newsroom.

"In the Pacific, communities are already seeing their lives and livelihoods destroyed by rising seas, stronger storms, and disappearing lands."

"We don't have time to waste. We need action on every front, including the multilateral process of the COP. Now, more than ever, every nation must stand in unity and contribute to an ambitious and just financial target at the end of this COP and together fight against the presence of big polluters."

Also at COP on Friday

• Developing countries lay out their public demands

Two developing country blocs, the Alliance of Small Island States and the Least Developed Countries, representing some 80 countries and more than a billion people, held a joint press conference Friday to discuss their financial demands.

These included the provision of primarily grant-based finance, a definition of finance that included loss and damage and specific funding targets for small island states and the least developed nations.

"The Alliance of Small Island States is here to defend the Paris Agreement. We're concerned that countries are forgetting that protecting the world's most vulnerable is at the core of this agreement," Samoan Environment Minister Cedric Schuster said.

• China shouldn't pay, developing nations say

Developing countries also backed the position of China and other emerging economies this week, saying they shouldn't be on the hook for climate finance.

"It's a powerful group, so we can't go off on our own, not to mention that it's in the interests of individual African countries not to antagonise such a major trading partner and investor," an African negotiator told The Africa Report, on condition of anonymity.

It's looking less and less likely that there will be a shift on this issue, which in turn makes developed countries less willing to agree to a significant increase in new quantum.

On finance, talks seem to have stalled. The issues may be so thorny that officials will fail to progress before ministers arrive next week.

• No new coal mines in Britain

Just months after powering off its last coal-fired power station, the United Kingdom will ban new coal mines, Energy Minister Michael Shanks announced.

"By consigning coal power to the past, we can pave the way for a clean, secure energy system that will protect billpayers and create a new generation of skilled workers," Shanks said.

Marc Daalder is a senior political reporter at Newsroom. He covers climate change, health, energy and violent extremism. ?

- This article was first published by Newsroom