New Zealand house prices are still down significantly from their peaks of 2021. Photo: RNZ
New Zealand house prices are still down significantly from their peaks of 2021.
But property market commentators say there are some areas more "undervalued" compared to long-term trends than others.
Corelogic produced data for RNZ looking at how median property values, as measured against median household incomes, and compared long-term averages around the country.
It showed that both Auckland and Wellington are back to similar levels as their long-term averages, as reflects a decline in values over the past couple of years.
While places such as Wairoa, Kaipara, the Far North, and Kaikōura were less than average.
At the other end, Mackenzie, Whanganui, Kawerau and Invercargill were above. Mackenzie was almost 40 percent above its long-term average by that measure.
Corelogic's head of research Nick Goodall said the Western Bay of Plenty was high on a price-to-income ratio but not out of line with its history, because prices tended to be high compared to local incomes there.
"Mackenzie is more of a touristy spot, during the Covid boom times Mackenzie went through some really strong growth and I don't think it has really ever seen that decline, or come back again."
He said it was likely that people who bought holiday homes in places like Mackenzie would hold on to them even if interest rates made the mortgage more expensive, rather than sell.
"You might see transactions slow down but you don't necessarily see values fall because they don't want to sell in a declining market and lose money outright. They might be more likely to hold on if they can and hope the good times come back."
He said Kaipara was more affordable than in the past because of how prices had fallen.
"It had strong growth and then a dead cat bounce but then declined since then to a lower point than in the previous trough. Maybe that shows the growth phase went a bit crazier there. The percentage fall from the peak is 22 percent, that's similar to Wellington. The peak value [in Kaipara] was $1 million and now it's $758,000."
The affordability compared to history could also reflect higher incomes in the region due to people commuting into Auckland or working from home in Kaipara, he said.
Goodall said there would be parts of the country that offered more value than others but there were a number of factors involved.
Some areas have more available listings than others, which keeps prices softer and might mean they did not bounce back as quickly, he said.
"After the global financial crisis we saw strength come back in the main centres and then the smaller rural areas, in general I'd still expect something like that to happen this time around."
Property investment coach Steve Goodey said he saw value in Auckland at the moment.
"I don't think it's had a boom in a while and is probably due for it."
He said Auckland tended to pick up first when a recovery happened.
He said Tauranga was "massively overpriced" but was still popular. His clients had been buying in smaller centres such as Whangarei and Whanganui, he said.
Ed McKnight, property economist at Opes Partners, said he saw good value in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch.
"Though we are cautious about Wellington City at the moment, give the economics challenges."
His data also showed Tasman, Buller and the Grey districts being undervalued by about 5 or 6 percent, and Marlborough and Whangarei by about 3 percent.
Corelogic's data shows gross rental yields have been trending slowly higher over the past two or three years, as values have weakened and rents have risen, which may make properties more appealing to investors.
From a floor of 2.7 percent in late 2021, they now stand at 3.9 percent on average, which is the highest level since late 2015.
Auckland is at 3.2 percent, but Wellington has edged up to 3.6 percent, with Hamilton, Tauranga, and Christchurch all around 4 percent. Dunedin is at 4.4 percent.
Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.