Target for 90% Covid-19 vaccination not 'anywhere near enough' - epidemiologist

The race is on to get 90 percent of all eligible residents of all district health boards fully vaccinated against Covid-19.

But even then, one in four New Zealanders will still be without that protection against the pandemic.

About 15 percent - three out of every 20 New Zealanders - are not yet eligible for the vaccine.

They are the under 12s who still cannot get the vaccine, although it is likely to be available to five to 11 year olds next year.

So, with that in mind, what does epidemiologist Professor Rod Jackson, from the University of Auckland, think about the 90 percent target?

"With Delta, it's so contagious, we believe everyone is either going to get vaccinated or get Covid-19. So I didn't think it was anywhere near enough," he told RNZ.

If 90 percent of New Zealanders 12 and over were fully vaccinated - and it does remain an if at this point as misinformation and disinformation campaigns ramped up - a quarter of the country would not have the protection of inoculation.

Dr Jackson said that would be a problem.

"We're going to see pockets - certainly households, but I think communities - where you might be lucky to get 50 percent vaccinated. I'm really concerned that we're going to see some major outbreaks that are going to overwhelm local and indeed national health services."

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins essentially sounded the warning last week - Covid-19 would be coming to a town near you.

With one in four unvaccinated - due to age or hesitancy - the effects could be devastating.

Ireland had a similar sized population as New Zealand with similar demographics and about 90 percent of their eligible population was fully vaccinated.

But more than 50 people were currently dying every week from Covid-19.

In New Zealand's context, that would be the third highest cause of death behind only cancer and heart disease.

Vaccination rates well beyond 90 percent were key, Dr Jackson said.

"I talked to my colleagues in Ireland and I asked them 'H

how did you get to such high vaccination levels?' and they said the number one motivator was fear. People were terrified, almost everyone had someone in their family who'd died. The number two motivation was mandates," he said.

In Ireland, the unvaccinated were dying at far higher rates than the vaccinated.

Data out of the UK suggested the unvaccinated were up to 32 times more likely to die from the virus.

But at 90 percent across all DHBs, there would be larger pockets of the unvaccinated among younger populations in Counties Manukau, Tairāwhiti, Lakes, Waikato and Taranaki.

Te Rōpū Whakakaupapa Urutā co-leader Professor Sue Crengle said younger populations were also disproportionately Māori and Pasifika.

Work had already begun to prepare whānau for when Covid-19 was in their community and home.

"We're also doing doing a lot of work with rūnaka, marae, Māori organisations and in communities around getting people ready for when Covid is in the community - having a whānau household Covid plan, for when if someone in your household is sick with Covid."

Māori had a trio of factors against them - lower immunisation rates, disproportionate numbers ineligible for the vaccine, and a far greater risk of severe illness.

Dr Crengle said if thousands of deaths did occur in New Zealand, that tragedy would be unfairly borne by Māori.

"I feel sick to my stomach and that's why people like me and Urutā have been advocating so hard since the beginning of the pandemic because we didn't want to be facing that situation."

Was the answer then simply to vaccinate children as soon as possible?

Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank, from the University of Canterbury and Te Pūnaha Matatini, said it was not that simple.

"We need to be very, very sure that there is a benefit to children for them to be vaccinated, rather than just using them as a means to an end to make life easier for adults. So I think that's a process that still needs to be worked through.

"It will certainly be interesting to see in countries like the US, where they have started using the vaccine in that age group now, what effect that has on transmission."

There was no magic number when it came to vaccination, he said.

However, the experts all agreed that the higher the proportion of vaccinated people, the better, and the best thing people could do for their own protection was to get their doses.