A new wave of Covid-19 is emerging in Europe, with a corresponding bump in hospitalisations. The World Health Organisation says it's clear the pandemic is not over yet and it is seeing indicators rising again, suggesting another wave of infections has begun.
Back here a scientist says the resurgence is being driven by new subvariants, as the Ministry of Health confirms the first case of the Omicron subvariant BQ.1.1. in the country.
The subvariant was also detected in Te Waipounamu wastewater samples.
The list of new subvariants appearing within the country was "lengthy and growing", the ministry said.
It could take weeks or months to know whether these subvariant mutations would allow it to out-compete others circulating in the community, it said.
Dr Joep de Ligt, the senior science lead for genomics at ESR, talked to Checkpoint about the latest developments.
"They're knocking on our door and they are coming in" - Dr Joep de Ligt
He expected to see a new dominant variant in the country in the next couple of weeks.
"They're knocking on our door and they are coming in. What's slightly different this time round is that it's not just one variant - it's a whole collection of them that we're seeing on the rise in Europe and the US."
The BQ.1.1 that has now been confirmed in New Zealand has been steadily rising in Europe where it has moved ahead "of its brothers and sisters", spreading more easily than them.
"It's one we're watching quite closely to see if it's going to cause another big peak."
There were four major subvariant players in the country at present, the BA5 was still the dominant one but this was likely to change within the next fortnight, he said.
"We will see those other variants coming up."
The BQ.1.1.was spreading faster in Europe because it has got better at evading the previous immunity gained from previous waves of Covid-19.
The vaccinations and/ or having had Covid-19 previously provided some protection, he said.
He agreed it was trickier at seeking out people who have less immunity.
Boosters containing the new variant may need to be offered which Australia has started rolling out.
Dr de Ligt said wastewater sampling was useful in helping to identify the variants that were circulating as testing rates in Aotearoa declined.
Covid-19 is continuing to mutate with a collection of subvariants expected to arrive in New Zealand soon, an expert says. Photo: 123RF
Uncertainty over case numbers
The Ministry of Health said it was still unclear how this new subvariant would lead to an increase cases in the coming months in New Zealand.
"In recent weeks in the Northern Hemisphere the colder weather, waning immunity, timing of last vaccinations and other behavioural factors, are likely to have contributed to an increase in BQ.1.1 cases," the ministry said.
A recent increase in cases nationally fell in line with expected modelling of a slow rise in cases from now to the end of the year, although this may still change, the ministry said.
"At this stage, there is no evidence that BQ.1.1 is driving an increase in cases but Manatū Hauora - the Ministry of Health, and Te Whatu Ora - Health New Zealand, alongside ESR, are closely monitoring the development of Covid-19 subvariants overseas and in New Zealand, including BQ.1.1."
Local factors, like waning immunity in the community related to previous infections and immunisation as well as large gatherings, were also expected to influence case numbers.