Week in Politics: Cyclone Gabrielle and aftermath test Chris Hipkins' leadership

By Peter Wilson*

Analysis - Jacinda Ardern's leadership was severely tested by the Covid-19 pandemic and, in the same way, Chris Hipkins will be tested by the way he oversees the recovery from Cyclone Gabrielle.

The difference is that Ardern's test went on for years, while Hipkins has to prove himself in a matter of weeks and months.

He is dealing with one of New Zealand's worst natural disasters in terms of damage to infrastructure, the loss of homes and the devastation of farms and businesses.

This week, it was still an emergency operation, rescuing people, keeping them safe and making sure they had food and water.

That will shift into the recovery, which will take time and a lot of money.

So far Hipkins and his key cabinet colleagues - Emergency Management Minister Kieran McAnulty, Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods and Communications Minister Ginny Andersen - have handled themselves well.

Hipkins has been highly visible from the start. He was in Auckland on Saturday and stayed through the cyclone.

National Party leader Christopher Luxon left to get back to Wellington for the scheduled start of Parliament, which lasted a few hours on Tuesday before adjourning for the rest of the week on a decision by the cross-party business committee.

Hipkins has led from the front with briefings and his visits to the flood-stricken East Coast on Thursday and Friday.

When it comes to recovery time, another minister will become central to it - Finance Minister Grant Robertson.

He is going to have to find the money, and he is not likely to hold back.

The eventual cost could be mind-boggling.

Stuff quoted Massey University professor in innovation and economics Christoph Schumacher, who said that judging by the cost of similar events overseas he would not be surprised if the cyclone ended up costing the country tens of billions.

"There is damage - purely the cost of fixing what has been destroyed," Schumacher said.

"But the economic impact would include the loss of productivity for the country, the shops that aren't open and can't sell their product, the people who are stuck at home and can't get to work.

"This will slow down GDP and our output will be severely impaired. Not just right now but it will go on for months and months."

Hipkins will likely give Robertson free rein to spend money on the recovery, and political fallout will not worry him.

National would be unwise to criticise spending that is getting businesses, farmers and households back on their feet. It might quibble around the edges about the way it is being provided but that is probably as far as it will go.

The Treasury is already onto it.

Treasury Secretary Caralee McLiesh was in front of Parliament's finance and expenditure select committee on Wednesday, the Herald reported.

She told the committee the Treasury expected to see "a very significant cost" to the government, in particular asset damage and infrastructure.

She said economic support would also come at a cost, listing Civil Defence payments and small business support.

McLiesh would not put figures on it, saying the Treasury was working on that.

"It's an unprecedented and evolving situation and we have stood up a team within Treasury and our role is to assess the impact," she said.

"The full economic and financial cost will take some time to realise.

"We know the biggest economic costs are going to be in the form of lost capital and lost economic opportunity."

That would flow through to GDP in the short term through the disruption of the primary sector, tourism and services, she said.

However, reconstruction after the floods had subsided would likely have a positive impact on GDP, with rebuilds counted as economic activity.

Politically, Hipkins and Labour have a lot to gain if the government gets it right.

"Almost any natural disaster will render the opposition irrelevant - unless the government bungles the handling of the disaster," said Herald political editor Claire Trevett.

"Even then, the opposition won't necessarily be thanked for wading in to critique it instead of being constructive - at least while the emergency is underway."

Trevett's assessment was that so far the government had shown no sign of bungling it. "So far, Hipkins and Emergency Management Minister Kieran McAnulty have been all over it."

Stuff's political editor Luke Malpass said Hipkins had been solid and was on top of his brief, but his attention was captured by McAnulty.

"It is McAnulty, the cabinet neophyte, whose performance is really impressing," Malpass said.

"McAnulty has been a steady hand at the tiller. Thorough, clear and concise. He is also someone who instinctively understands the requirement of humility in front of the public… he looks and is authentic."

After the government declared a National State of Emergency on Tuesday, Luxon said the decision had National's full backing, RNZ reported.

National Party emergency management spokesperson Gerry Brownlee - who was in charge of reconstructing Christchurch after the earthquake - said the government had done what people expected it to do.

"Remember that we're talking about nearly two thirds of the country's population being in some way affected by this," he said.

"When you get it as widespread as this, there's clearly a role for government going into a recovery and therefore understanding exactly how you respond."

Brownlee said the response had been well managed - much better than in the Auckland flooding a fortnight ago.

ACT leader David Seymour questioned why the National State of Emergency was not declared on Monday, a day earlier than it was.

McAnulty, who signed it off, said it was declared as soon as local Civil Defence groups told the National Emergency Management Agency it was necessary.

Appearing on Newshub's AM Show, Seymour said other than that it was hard to fault a government that was "trying to react as quickly as possible, like everybody else as the waters rose and their homes were in danger".

Throughout his briefings, Hipkins has been stressing how hard agencies were working to get power back on and communications restored.

On Wednesday, he had with him Woods and Andersen to explain in detail why there were still power and phone outages, and what was being done to repair them.

He has had a lot of experience with crisis management, having been in charge of the Covid-19 response, and no doubt knows what Trevett pointed out in her article: "One lesson learned from Covid-19 is how quickly people can turn to anger once the shock and coping of the initial emergency is over."

The frustration is already starting to show. There have been reports from Gisborne about anger over not being able to charge cellphones or get money from ATMs because the power was out.

It is remarkable how often the saying "a week in politics is a long time" plays out.

Last week, the government had a single, intense focus - the cost of living.

Hipkins had announced a set of policies that he was scrapping or putting on hold to get his Cabinet totally focused on dealing with a crisis that could decide the outcome of the election.

This week, he has a different and just as intense focus on another crisis - dealing with a natural disaster which is also very likely to have an impact on the election.

Hipkins is going to have to handle both of them at the same time for the next few months.

*Peter Wilson is a life member of Parliament's press gallery, 22 years as NZPA's political editor and seven as parliamentary bureau chief for NZ Newswire.