Covid-19 deaths and hospitalisations remain low in Te Waipounamu as the Omicron wave washes through the south.
But experts say it is still too early to celebrate with cases on the rise.
Photo: RNZ / Vinay Ranchhod
At the start of March, only six people in the South Island were in hospital with or because of Covid-19.
Fast forward three weeks and it has risen to 93.
Every district health board in the south, apart from West Coast, also reported record high cases yesterday.
University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker said the worst was still to come.
"While it looks as though most of New Zealand is halfway through this Omicron wave, we're still going to see these consequences now for several weeks and it's going to remain very hard work for our colleagues working in the hospital system and primary care because they are going to see a lot of very sick people for weeks and in fact months ahead."
Since February, only five people had died with Covid-19 in the South Island.
But that figure would also rise in the coming weeks, professor Baker said.
However, vaccination and in particular booster shots were still the key to keeping deaths down.
"We know that fully vaccinated for Delta meant two doses of vaccine, but for Omicron it's three doses. So I think that's still really the critical message for the whole country, particularly places that are still earlier on in their outbreak wave," he said.
Te Waipounamu was particularly prepared with only about 1 percent of people aged 12 and over unvaccinated, while almost 98 percent had received two doses and more than three-quarters of those eligible had got all three.
Most importantly more than 90 percent of those over 65 in the south had received a booster.
University of Canterbury Covid-19 modeller Michael Plank said those rates were key.
"It does play a small part in reducing transmission but it will play a huge role in limiting the number of people who get severely ill and the number of people who end up in hospital. So that is by far and away the biggest effect of the vaccine now - it's not going to stop us getting a large number of cases, but it is absolutely crucial to managing the health impacts of Covid."
Hospitalisations in the South Island increased by 50 percent over the past week.
Seeing those numbers decrease would be a sign the worst was over but it would not mark the end of the pandemic, professor Plank said.
"The virus isn't going away and it's clear looking at other countries that we're going to be living with significant, high numbers of cases for some time to come and the possibility of a resurgence over winter as well. So we still need to keep up a sustainable set of mitigations to help try to control transmission and control the health impacts of the virus."
Balclutha GP and director of the rural medical immersion programme at Otago University Dr Branko Sijnja said already stretched services seemed to be holding their own at the moment.
"The nursing staff are doing a tremendous job in general practice in Clutha and that's the same in other areas too - the nursing staff are doing a lot of work and we're managing with the numbers, and so far doctors seem to have been keeping themselves in pretty good shape," he said.
However, the concern remained for when the numbers of those seriously sick began to spike, and if large numbers of the workforce were also out with illness.
All three shared the same message for those in the South Island - if you had not got a third dose of vaccine, now was the time.