Constabulary staffing numbers have fallen this year. (File image) Photo: RNZ / Cole Eastham-Farrelly
The government will struggle to reach its target of 500 more police officers if numbers keep falling as they are, the Police Association says.
Data published in the union's publication Police News this month showed constabulary staffing numbers fell by 124, not including vacancies, from February to 24 June.
It showed numbers dropping from 10,200 staff in November 2023, to 10,190 in February 2024, 10,152 in March and, 10,104 staff in April.
Numbers increased slightly to 10,112 in May, before dropping again to 10,066 in June.
However, a Police College graduation on 27 June - three days after the cut-off for the data published by Police News - meant there were now 10,103 officers, a police spokesperson said.
Police Association president Chris Cahill said declining staff numbers would delay the government's 2025 targets.
"Whether they can do it in the two-year timeframe is becoming doubtful," he said.
"A lot of that will depend on how many people leave in the next 12 months, but we know that they'd planned 80 per recruit wing, they're struggling, they're getting 60, so there is some real pressure on that."
Cahill said the decreases were likely due to natural attrition as well as recruitment from Australia, where about 69 officers had gone to Queensland alone.
"Police are struggling to recruit at the numbers they want, but also they paused two recruit wings in October/November," he said.
"That has left them behind their normal recruitment for attrition, and that's what's flowing through at the moment."
A Police News graph shows how much staffing will need to rise to meet the government's targets over the next two years. Photo: Supplied/Police News
Police changed the eligibility criteria to increase the potential pool for recruits earlier this week.
That came after a pay offer from the government that would see police receiving a $1500 lump sum payment, a flat $5000 pay increase, plus another 4 percent increase in July and again in 2025.
There would also be a 5.25 percent increase in allowances, backdated to November.
Cahill said many officers were waiting to see what would happen with the offer before making a decision about their future.
"I think we're going to have to watch very closely to see if the attrition rate for police climbs," he said.
"The way it works, it doesn't have to climb much for it to become a bit of a crisis,
"Literally a 1 to 1.5 percent movement in attrition can actually mean police can't recruit enough people going forward."
Cahill said the attrition rate would have to be monitored very closely.
He said some areas could be left unserviced as police re-allocated officers to other areas, like the beat patrols in the main centres.
"You can't do more with the same numbers, you've got to move them from one place to another, and that's police changing their priorities.
"They just need to be clear with the public that 'yep, you're going to see more people on the beat in downtown Auckland, but minor crimes aren't going to be investigated in West Auckland because of that'. That's the sort of compromise that's going to have to be made."
A police spokesperson said the number of constabulary staff had fallen by 97 between 30 November and 30 June.
"Over the last year the number of graduates from [Police College] was partially impacted by an increase in the length of training to a 20-week curriculum, which meant that no wings commenced at [Police College] between October 2023 and January 2024.
"While overall the number of recruit intakes at Police College - and subsequently the numbers of constables graduating - slowed a little with the transition to a 20-week course, there is now a wing graduating every five weeks, which will see overall constabulary numbers trending upwards towards the 500 growth target."
Applications to join the police were trending upwards and attrition remained low, the spokesperson said.
Police Minister Mark Mitchell said the government was tracking attrition closely and was "pleased that it remains within expected levels".
The government was committed to meeting its goal of recruiting 500 net police officers over two years, he said.