Photo: AFP
Health experts are urging Kiwis to put a Covid-19 booster shot on their Christmas list for the best chance to avoid the latest variant impacting their summer holidays.
According to the Science Media Centre, modelling was suggesting that hospitalisations for the current Covid wave will peak this week - just days before Christmas Day.
And while the newest variant JN.1 is picking up speed in New Zealand, stocks of antiviral Paxlovid are running out, it said.
University of Canterbury's Professor Michael Plank said JN.1 was likely the fastest growing variant seen this year, and could lengthen the time New Zealand was in its current wave.
"JN.1 was responsible for around 10-15 percent of infections in New Zealand according to the latest sequencing and wastewater data, so we are yet to feel its full impact," Professor Plank said in a statement.
Professor Michael Plank. Photo: Supplied.
"But if it grows at a similar rate to other countries, it could become the dominant variant early in the new year. This could cause the wave to continue to rise for longer, or potentially cause a double peak."
Last week Te Whatu Ora and Pharmac announced supplies of the anti-viral medicine Paxlovid were running low, and authorities were working to redistribute stock and secure more shipments next year.
The good news, Plank said, was that the start of the school holidays could bring a reprieve as its ability to spread is reduced.
"The risk of getting severely ill with Covid-19 is now very low for most people. However, it can still be a serious illness for some and there is still a risk of Long Covid (although this is much lower now than earlier in the pandemic).
"If you're over 30 and it's been more than six months since your last vaccine, you may be eligible for another booster. Now is a good time to get one to reduce the risk of Covid ruining your summer holidays. And if you don't feel well, it's better to stay home than to risk spreading Covid or other nasty viruses, especially if you are seeing elderly relatives over the holiday period."
Dr Lesley Gray. Photo: Otago University Wellington
University of Otago senior lecturer Dr Lesley Gray said Covid-19 numbers rising again coincided with people becoming overdue for booster shots.
Dr Gray also reiterated the importance of hand hygiene with such illnesses.
"No-one wants Christmas to be ruined by stomach bugs and/or Covid-19, so double up on hand hygiene, make sure you have good food preparation habits - and when meeting in groups with people especially indoors, do consider wearing a mask. We know that masking up helps reduce the transmission of the Covid-19 virus.
"If you are eligible and haven't had your Covid-19 vaccination or booster yet, pop it on your Christmas list and get your free jab."
Canterbury University epidemiologist associate professor Arindam Basu said the fifth wave of Covid was likely to keep rolling into the new year, "partly due to the indoor gatherings in poorly ventilated places, and holiday travels", as well as the new variant.
"Infections are likely to last longer and this variant has immune evading properties.
"Vaccinations, masking, RAT tests and where possible, avoiding mass gatherings are still our best bets."