By Peter Wilson*
A recent poll suggests Christopher Luxon's National Party is three points above Labour. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver
Analysis - Another opinion poll points to a close election, National launches a tax attack on the government but has to answer questions about its own policy, and a minister apologises to a Māori MP for what he said to her in Parliament.
This week's 1News Kantar opinion poll was another pointer to a close election next year, and there were some interesting interpretations.
It showed National steady on 37 percent, Labour up one point to 34 per cent, the Greens steady on 9 per cent and ACT also on 9 per cent, down two points. The Maori Party was steady on 2 per cent.
Those results were similar to other recent polls which have shown National closing the gap on Labour and edging ahead.
Some polls have given it enough seats to form a government with ACT, and in others the Māori Party has been the kingmaker.
The 1News Kantar results would give National and ACT 61 seats, just enough to form a government in a Parliament of 120 MPs. Labour, the Greens and Te Parti Maori would have 59.
The poll was conducted between September 17-21, after the government announced the end of Covid-19 restrictions. It had hoped for more than a one point gain from that.
The poll was widely covered, with the Herald running a headline 'On track for drag race to Beehive'.
Political reporter Thomas Coghlan said there were three lessons to take from it.
"The first is the lesson we should have learned by now but it needs repeating: National is back," he said.
"The second is that the party's polling is relatively resilient. It has run the full spectrum from wobble to scandal.
"The third lesson is one that could be missed, and that is how relatively unpopular both leaders are."
He explained the last point, saying Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's popularity was now 30 per cent - "fairly low" compared with the previous government's second term when John Key was never once in the 30s.
Luxon's 21 per cent rating was stronger than other recent National leaders "but the country hasn't fallen in love with him in the way it did with Ardern and Key", Coghlan said.
His conclusion: "All three lessons point to a nail-biter election. This could mean some substantial, not to mention costly, election promises as well as a fairly grubby campaign."
Luxon was pleased with the result. "We've made great progress over the last nine to 10 months," he said on Morning Report.
"What's really clear in this poll and other polls is people consistently say the country is heading in the wrong direction.
"They are really genuinely worried about the cost of living, the rising levels of crime and the healthcare system that's falling apart."
The Herald's political editor Claire Trevett delved further into the approval ratings and said the poll showed more people were making up their minds about Luxon - "and while he might have won over his party's base, not all those who were on the fence like what they see."
She said the polling company had noted 37 per cent of people had not given a view on Luxon in January and that number had dropped to 23 per cent as people drew their conclusions, but "negative sentiment towards him has increased at a faster rate than positive sentiment".
Luxon's reaction was that he was still new to politics.
"I'm up against a 14-year career politician (Ardern) and I've got a big, long job interview ahead of me in the next year. I'm doing my job which is to lead and prepare a team for government," he said.
It was Parliament's last week before a two-week recess and National decided to launch another tax attack on the government, this time over the proposed Income Insurance Scheme.
When it was announced in February National described it as a "jobs tax" and has added some new angles which were on show at Question Time on Tuesday and Wednesday.
As explained on MBIE's website, the scheme was worked out by the government, Business NZ and the CTU and would, like ACC, be funded by levies on wages with employers and employees contributing.
It would support workers with 80 per cent of their income for up to seven months if they lose their job through no fault of their own, be it redundancy, being laid off, ill or disabled.
The government has said it won't be introduced until the 2024/25 financial year at the earliest, which means around July the year after next.
National is now linking it to the current cost of living crisis, attempting to create the impression that it's just around the corner and that it's a new tax imposed by a government desperate to raise revenue.
Here are some of the questions put to Ardern and Finance Minister Grant Robertson, straight from Hansard:
Luxon to Ardern: "Why is the government planning to rake in $3.5 billion more in taxes from workers and employers every year when Kiwis are already struggling with the cost of living crisis?"
Luxon again: "Isn't it the case that this government's spending is just so out of control it's running out of new things to tax?"
Nicola Willis, National's finance spokesperson to Finance Minister Grant Robertson: "Why does he want to force New Zealanders to pay more tax when we already have a welfare system and when they're already struggling with rising prices and mortgage payments."
The answers from Ardern and Robertson were a lot longer than the questions: The scheme was supported by BusinessNZ and the CTU, there was a gap in the social security system, nearly every OECD country had income insurance.
They said governments, including National, had stepped in with income support during the global financial crisis, the Christchurch earthquake and the pandemic - ad hoc schemes which would be replaced with certainty.
The government isn't going to back off and its confidence rests on the scheme having been worked out and supported by the business sector and the unions.
As it won't start until 2024/25, National can simply repeal it if it wins next year's election.
Would it do that? Robertson doesn't think so.
"The National Party will do just as they did with KiwiSaver, just as they did with the Super Fund, just as they did with Working for Families: they criticise it in opposition, they vote against it, and then they keep it. And they would do exactly the same thing if, God forbid, they got into government," he said.
National has pledged to cut taxes if it wins the election and Luxon faces questions about that this week after the UK's very recent experience.
New Prime Minister Liz Truss announced a 45 billion pound sterling ($85 billion) tax cuts package, which included scrapping the top rate paid by the highest earners, and CNN reported the adjustments would benefit the rich far more than millions of people on lower incomes.
The immediate result was that the pound fell to its lowest level in nearly four decades.
The International Monetary Fund issued a rare rebuke on Tuesday for a developed country, criticising the plan and saying they would 'likely increase inequality', the CNN report said.
National's policy includes removing the top tax rate and the government has consistently said it will favour the rich while fuelling inflation.
Interviewed on Morning Report, Luxon said his plans had not changed, despite some markets seeing tax cuts as adding to inflation.
"The UK is incredibly different from our own plan," he said.
"What you've got in the UK is a more challenged economy, frankly, as a starting point. You've got (a) massive amount of stimulus spending going on and you've got massive wholesale tax change going on as well."
He said National was focused on adjusting tax brackets for inflation and making sure there was less wasteful spending.
Asked repeatedly by Morning Report if his government would consider borrowing to fulfil its tax cut plans, Luxon said that was a separate issue.
National would come to an election with a fully costed plan and would look hard at cutting spending. "We think we can give tax relief in a very simple principle which many countries around the world do, which is just inflation-adjusted tax thresholds."
Parliament passed legislation this week which was, unusually, supported by all parties.
The Accident Compensation (Maternal Birth Injury and Other Matters) Bill expands ACC cover to birthing injuries, RNZ reported.
ACC Minister Carmel Sepuloni said it improved the gender balance, fairness and equity of the ACC scheme.
"The bill's approach to covering maternal birth injuries is the best approach in ensuring birthing parents have the support they need to recover as quickly as possible in what will already be a time of great change in their lives," she said.
National's Erica Stanford praised those who made submissions to the select committee that considered the bill.
"It was very personal and very gruelling for some of those women who needed to go into quite graphic detail in front of strangers at the select committee," she said. "Their bravery needs to be acknowledged."
Children's Minister Kelvin Davis apologised to ACT MP Karen Chhour for remarks he made during an exchange in Parliament.
Davis had told Chhour she needed to "cross the bridge that is Te Tiriti o Waitangi from her Pakeha world into the Maori world and understand exactly how the Maori world operates. It's no good looking at the world from a vanilla lens".
David said in a statement he had intended his comments to allude to ACT's policies in general, rather than cause personal offence.
"I absolutely acknowledge Karen's whakapapa… I probably could have made my point better and I have apologised to her," he said.
It caused quite a stir in Parliament, and ACT wrote to Ardern asking her to discipline Davis by standing him down from Labour's caucus, Newshub reported.
Almost simultaneously, Davis called to make his apology.
"I made a mistake. I rang her up. I apologised," he said.
Ardern said Davis had become "too personal" and his remarks warranted an apology but she wasn't going to stand him down.
Chhour had a tough upbringing, the Newshub report said, and quoted the MP: "Growing up I always felt lacking in my identity. I finally found the confidence to stand as a proud Maori woman. That was taken away from me yesterday."
*Peter Wilson is a life member of Parliament's press gallery, 22 years as NZPA's political editor and seven as parliamentary bureau chief for NZ Newswire.