National appears to have abandoned plans to streamline permits for space launches, possibly due to its coalition partners.
The government announced a new space strategy on Wednesday, including removing a requirement for companies to go through a whole new approvals process each time they tweaked their technology.
Despite the main public advisory body on launches two years ago recommending a tightening of rocket launch rules, National campaigned on replacing "ministerial approval of individual launches with launch criteria".
However, the new space strategy did not mention this. RNZ asked if it was still Space Minister Judith Collins' intention.
Her office replied "we are in a coalition government and are satisfied that the regulatory regime we have in place is robust and efficient".
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (Mbie) said it would continue with the "existing robust space regulatory regime".
Current regime
The current regime requires a permit for each rocket payload - an object, for example a satellite, carried into space by a launch vehicle.
"Permits... are assessed on a case-by-case basis," Mbie's manager of space regulatory systems Virginia Fenton said.
Launches each need a licence, too, though these each last up to five years.
The licences and permits apply to launches from New Zealand and for New Zealand launches overseas.
In 2022, government-appointed Public Advisory Committee on Disarmament and Arms Control (PACDAC) said the system should be tightened as it required too much trust that sealed payloads contained what applicants said they did.
"Applicants need to demonstrate that they have thoroughly and sufficiently mitigated the risks, not just that they intend to not cause harm," PACDAC told Mbie during its review of space policy.
That review resulted in a document detailing government objectives in space and triggered arguments from submitters around national security and payload permits.
In May, the Minister of Economic Development's office said there would be "no blanket ban on permitting payloads with national security applications" as that would cramp consideration of New Zealand's security, foreign affairs, economic and other interests.
The new space strategy said New Zealand was looking at getting external advice on space regulations.
Fenton said that was around safety because the lack of orbital launching states internationally meant expertise for assessing launch safety was scarce.
Ukraine war risk
Ddocuments newly released to RNZ touch on the limits of the risk assessment done on rocket payloads, particularly around a launch of a satellite for US company Capella from Mahia last month.
"Capella imagery is sold to both the US and Ukraine governments" to monitor the Ukraine war, Mbie said in its eight-page assessment after consulting with Foreign Affairs, and the SIS and GCSB spy agencies.
"We have not identified any national interest risks related to Capella's sale of imagery to the US and Ukraine."
However, Russia has repeatedly said that commercial satellites used in armed conflicts "may become a legitimate target for retaliation".
It was unclear if that threat extended to countries that launched them, or if Mbie had tried to ascertain that.
RNZ has previously reported the Ministry of Defence, Defence Force, and security agencies had not provided a record of assessing this risk to New Zealand.
Contrary to the national interest
Mbie's payload permit approval for Capella said "with commercial remote sensing services, there is the potential that downstream customers use the data in ways that were contrary to New Zealand's national interest".
But in Capella 13's case the risks could be weighed against economic benefits.
And it helped that the company had systems to ensure only authorised entities could access its data and that its radar imaging satellite was not using novel technology.
Mbie recommended a condition prohibiting any imagery being sold to anyone on the designated terrorist list or subject to sanctions.
The same condition was recommended for an earth-imaging satellite launch last month for Synspective Japan, also from Mahia.
Synspective is a civilian operation, however industry commentators in Asia have pointed out such platforms could provide an outlet for gathering ISR - intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance - which could be militarised.
In 2022, PACDAC said the potential dual-use of much space technology for military purposes raised questions about how Mbie could be certain the initial use of the technology did not change.
"Mbie could prioritise scrutinising the potential as well as intended uses of the payload."