France votes on Sunday in a high-stakes parliamentary election that could deprive centrist President Emmanuel Macron of the absolute majority he needs to govern with a free hand.
The Senate building, Paris Photo: 123rf
Voting starts at 8am locally (6pm NZ time), with initial projections expected about 8pm (6pm NZT) in an election that could change the face of French politics.
Pollsters have predicted Macron's camp will end up with the largest number of seats, but said his side was in no way guaranteed to reach the 289 threshold for an absolute majority.
Opinion polls have showed the far right was likely to score its biggest parliamentary success in decades, while a broad left-green alliance could become the largest opposition group, and the conservatives could find themselves as kingmakers.
If Macron's camp did fall short of an outright majority, that would open a period of uncertainty that could be solved by a degree of power-sharing among parties - unheard of in France over the past decades - or could result in protracted paralysis and repeat parliamentary elections down the line.
Macron, who wanted to push up the retirement age, pursue his pro-business agenda and further European Union integration, won a second term in April.
After electing a president, French voters have traditionally used legislative polls that follow a few weeks later to hand him a comfortable parliamentary majority - with Francois Mitterand in 1988 a rare exception.
Macron and his allies could still achieve that.
But the rejuvenated left has been putting up a tough challenge, as rampant inflation driving up the cost of living has sent shockwaves through the French political landscape.
If Macron and his allies miss an absolute majority by just a few seats, they could be tempted to poach MPs from the centre-right or conservatives, officials in those parties said.
If they miss it by a wider margin, they could either seek an alliance with the conservatives or run a minority government that would have to negotiate laws on a case-by-case basis with other parties.
Even if Macron's camp did win the 289 seats or more that it would need to avoid sharing power, it would likely to be thanks to his former prime minister Edouard Philippe, who is expected to demand more of a say on what the government does.
So, after five years of undisputed control, Macron, known for his top-down approach to power, would likely be looking at a new mandate where he would need to strike more compromises.
There were no poll that showed the leftwing Nupes, led by hard left Jean-Luc Melenchon, winning a ruling majority - a scenario that could plunge the euro zone's second largest economy into an unstable period of cohabitation between a president and prime minister from different political groups.
-Reuters