A recent poll shows that Chinese voters are leaning heavily towards supporting the National Party in the upcoming election. Photo: Supplied
Opinion polls can allow Chinese voters to feel more engaged in the political process and encourage them to actively participate in elections, analysts and voters say.
Trace Research director Andrew Zhu says opinion polls can also help political parties understand the needs of Chinese voters, which could inform them as they draft policies reflecting such needs.
"Opinion poll results will … help increase political engagement and encourage more Chinese to actively participate in elections and other political processes," Zhu says. "Ultimately, this will help create a political environment that is more inclusive and diverse."
Zhu says Chinese voters should pay attention to opinion polls so that they are more informed about the political landscape and keep track of whether their views are being represented properly, thereby making better decisions when voting.
Trace Research director Andrew Zhu says opinion polls can help political parties understand Chinese voters' needs. Photo: Supplied
Birdie Zhang, a Chinese voter in Whanganui who has been living in New Zealand for more than 20 years, finds opinion polls to be "very meaningful".
"Every time after a poll when the results are reported by media, you can see that each political party will do some fine-tuning of their policies and campaign strategies," Zhang says. "A poll is like a catalyst for change. I can then see which political party is just bragging and which party is truly adjusting its policies to benefit the people."
That said, Zhang says she has not changed which party she has voted for after reading the poll results.
Auckland voter Yingzi Lou also believes that opinion polls provide valuable information.
"I can learn what other people are thinking and paying attention to through polls," Lou says. "Political parties change their policies based on poll results and you can see what impact each policy has on people's opinions."
Like Zhang, she typically doesn't change her vote based on poll results but will come to a final decision based on the policies and actions of each party.
Ngaire Reid, managing director of Reid Research, says Chinese residents are often underrepresented in polls.
"They don't like (to participate in) polls," Reid says. "They're similar to Māori and Pacific Islanders."
New Zealand Research Association spokesperson Murray Campbell says independent polling is a fundamental part of the democratic process, adding that countries with fragile democracies typically didn't allow polls or place restrictions on their publication.
"If you want to have a healthy democracy, if you want to allow people the freedom of speech and the freedom of an expression of point of view … then political polls should be able to be produced independently and published," Campbell says.
"It's a fundamental human need to understand what other people are thinking and what might happen. It's similar in a broad sense to wondering what the weather is going to be like tomorrow."
Campbell says opinion polls first gained prominence in New Zealand in the 1980s and have since become remarkably accurate over time.
"(They're) way more accurate than weather forecasts or economic forecasts," he says, noting that the most accurate polls were those taken closest to election day.
70.9%的华裔选民选择支持国家党，与2020年同期华裔对国家党53%的支持率低谷相比，增加了近18%，虽然仍略低于2017年（71.1%）和2014年（74.1%）的数据。 同时，13.4%的受调者表示会支持行动党，与2020年相比下降了1.4%，还有12.5%的人表示会投票给工党，与2020年同期21.7%的峰值相比，下降了9.2%。绿党的支持率也有略微上升，从1%上升到了1.4%。 Photo: Supplied
A recent survey conducted by market research firm Trace Research shows that a majority of Chinese voters will vote for the National Party in the upcoming election, a significant increase compared with three years ago. Meanwhile, ACT has overtaken Labour insofar as Chinese voters are concerned, although support for both parties has declined.
According to the survey, 70.9 percent of Chinese voters currently support National, an increase of nearly 18 percent compared to the low of 53 percent over the same period in 2020, though the support is lower than the levels recorded in 2017 (71.1 percent) and 2014 (74.1 percent).
Meanwhile, 13.4 percent of those surveyed say they will support ACT, a decrease of 1.4 percent compared with 2020, and 12.5 percent say they will vote for Labour, a decrease of 9.2 percent compared with the peak of 21.7 percent in 2020. Support for the Green Party has also increased slightly, from 1 percent to 1.4 percent.
Newshub's recent Reid-Research poll also showed that overall support for National was higher at 40.9 percent compared to Labour's 26.8 percent.
Trace Research's survey also found that the issues concerning Chinese voters include the rising cost of living, law and order, economic growth, racial equality and healthcare, which are in line with what RNZ has found previously.