An expected 7.8 billion passengers will be taken on flights by airlines by 2036, a new report says.
The increase in air passengers is expected to put a strain on airports. Photo: 123RF
That figure is more than the current population of the earth, though it includes some people travelling multiple times.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts almost doubled the current number of passenger journeys today of 4 billion. They were based on average growth of 3.6 percent per annum for 20 years, compounded.
The report says the biggest driver of demand would be the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for more than half the growth, with China displacing the United States as the world's largest aviation market in around 2022.
But IATA added a caveat, saying if trade protection policies and travel restrictions developed, they could shave 1.1bn off the 2036 figure. But if trade liberalisation increased, then passenger numbers could triple, not double.
Either way, the report says the growth would strain the ability of airports, access roads and passenger and freight handling systems to cope. The trend is also expected to put pressure on the industry to mitigate climate changing emissions.
Both IATA and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) have pledged to level aviation emissions from 2020, which New Zealand also agreed to comply with.
However all parties have agreed emissions would be stabilised by companies buying carbon offsets, such as forestry schemes, rather than from lowering total emissions from planes, even though they have become far more efficient over several decades.
The offsets needed to reduce net emissions are expected to be in high demand from other sectors by then, meaning this could become expensive.