Taking extra precautions above and beyond the traffic light settings is keeping case numbers low, says one Covid modeller.
Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon
Te Pūnaha Matatini complex systems researcher Dr Dion O'Neale told Morning Report relatively low case numbers lately suggest vaccination is having an effect, as is mask wearing, social distancing, good ventilation and the Covid traffic light settings.
On Wednesday 56 new cases of Covid-19 were reported, 28 new cases on Tuesday and 69 on Monday.
If cases are spreading in a highly unvaccinated community O'Neale said he would expect case numbers to rise faster.
"A lot of it does come down to what are the additional things people are doing on top of the Covid protection framework settings.
"If people took the things you're allowed to do in red or orange as a target and said I'm going to do all the things I'm permitted to do then I would expect to see case numbers higher than what they are currently.
"The fact that we're not seeing those numbers as high is because people are not treating those settings as a target, they're saying that's a minimum I have to hit but there are additional things I can do like wearing masks not where I'm required to wear a mask but I know it helps."
This behaviour is keeping our case numbers lower, he said.
O'Neale hopes relatively high vaccination rates across the motu would mean numbers wouldn't skyrocket in areas outside of Auckland because of the border restrictions lifting, though cases are expected to spread more widely.
He said while numbers were falling, he expected to see up to 100 cases a day.
"If we're seeing low case numbers because we've got a low case ascertainment rate that would be more concerning.
"We want people, if they've got any symptoms, to go and get tested."
He would expect to see an occasional spike in numbers if there were undetected cases in the community.