Two-thirds of voters support capital gains tax 'in some form' - poll

Two-thirds of New Zealanders would support a capital gains tax in some form, according to the latest IPSOS Issues Monitor survey.

A total of 1003 New Zealanders were surveyed between 30 September and 7 October.

Sixty-five percent of respondents said they would support a CGT "in some form".

But broken down into specifics, support starts to drop.

Fifty-seven percent said they would support it on the sale of an investment property, while 43 percent said they would support it on the sale of a business.

A total of 22 percent said they would support a capital gains tax on the sale of assets like boats, cars and paintings, and just 13 percent were in favour of taxing the sale of a family home.

Meanwhile, 58 percent of people said a CGT should be used to allow for a reduction in other types of tax, while 29 percent want it to increase the overall amount of tax collected.

IPSOS New Zealand country manager Carin Hercock said IPSOS wanted to understand what people meant by a capital gains tax.

"So what we asked people was whether they supported one of four types of potential capital gains tax. We found that across the board 65 percent supported at least one of those capital gains taxes, but when we drill into it, most people are really referring to investment property, capital gains on investment property," she told RNZ.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday afternoon, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said a capital gains tax was not the way to build economic growth.

"I just say to you, I think when you talk to most New Zealanders and say 'would you like a capital gains tax on your house or your Kiwisaver account as a small business owner', I can tell you that's not something they want," he said.

"We don't need to tax our way out of a recession, we need to grow our way out of a recession ... getting red tape out of the system and having smart regulation, we're making sure that we can actually create jobs and have growth in the economy, and that's what it's all about."

The issues

The survey asked respondents what they believed to be the three most important issues facing New Zealand today.

Inflation and the cost of living remained top of mind for most people, though it was declining.

The survey showed 55 percent of people believed inflation/cost of living was the most important issue for New Zealanders. This is down from 56 percent on the last survey (taken between 16 and 23 August). At its peak, in February 2023, it was at 65 percent.

Healthcare was next, on 41 percent. The economy and housing/price of housing were third-equal on 28 percent, with crime/law and order rounding out the top five on 27 percent.

Hercock said while inflation was slowly trending down, different age groups responded differently.

"We have found it tends to be that for older people that inflation is reduced as an issue, and those under 50 are still really feeling it."

Healthcare is the highest it has been in the rankings for a number of years.

"It was last higher when Covid first hit New Zealand, and then again when Covid went into the community in October 2021," Hercock said.

Who can manage the issues?

IPSOS also surveyed people on which political party they believed was most capable at managing those issues.

Labour has begun to catch up with or overtake National on a number of key issues.

The survey showed respondents now believe Labour is more capable at managing education and household debt/personal debt compared to the last survey.

It is also now equal with National on housing, drug and alcohol abuse, and immigration.

"[Labour has] sort of been slowly trending up on some issues throughout the year. They were low, before they lost the election, on a lot of these issues last year, but they're sort of slowly taking ground," Hercock said.

National is still considered more capable at managing inflation/cost of living, the economy, crime/law and order, taxation, petrol prices, transport, population/overpopulation, and defence/foreign affairs.

The Green Party is still seen as the party most capable of managing environmental pollution, while Te Pāti Māori is seen as most capable at tackling issues facing Māori.

Labour was already seen as more capable at managing healthcare, unemployment, poverty, and race relations.

Government performance

Despite Labour catching up on some issues, National is still seen as more or equally capable of handling four out of the top five, and ten of the top 20.

The mean rating of the government's performance has increased slightly from the last survey, up to 4.7 from 4.5. This was the highest rating this government has received since it took office.

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