Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins, National Party leader Christopher Luxon and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters. Photo: RNZ
National has gained in the latest 1News-Verian poll, but all other parties currently in Parliament have lost support or stayed steady.
NZ First would also barely scrape back into Parliament on the poll's numbers - but National and ACT would not need their support to form a government.
- National: 39 percent, up 2 points (49 seats, up 1)
- Labour: 28 percent, down 1 points (35 seats, down 2)
- Greens: 10 percent, down 2 points (13 seats, down 2)
- ACT: 10 percent, down 3 points (13 seats, down 4)
- NZ First: 5 percent, up 1 points (7 seats, up 7)
- Te Pāti Māori: 3 percent, steady (3 seats, steady)
This result would give National and ACT a combined 62 seats, still able to form a government.
However, it's still a decrease of three seats for the right bloc compared to the previous 1News-Verian poll in mid-August - with ACT dropping four seats, the largest dip - with most of that change soaked up by NZ First.
Chris Hipkins, the incumbent, saw a two-point increase in the preferred prime minister stakes - but not as large as that of Christopher Luxon, up three points. It puts them on an even keel: both on 23 percent.
Preferred prime minister:
- Christopher Luxon: 23 percent, up 3 points
- Chris Hipkins: 23 percent, up 2 points
- David Seymour: 5 percent, down 1 point
- Winston Peters: 4 percent, up 1 point
- Chlöe Swarbrick: 1 percent, down 1 point
- Nicola Willis: 1 percent, down 1 point
- Jacinda Ardern: 1 percent, down 1 point
- Grant Robertson: 1 percent, up 1 point
Respondents who refused to answer or were undecided accounted for 10 percent of responses, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous poll, but these were excluded from the party vote and preferred prime minister results.
The poll surveyed 1002 eligible voters between 9 and 12 September, and was weighted for demographics, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. Full results and poll results here.
Read more of RNZ's full election coverage: