Labour's Chris Hipkins is falling behind the combined vote for National's Christopher Luxon and ACT's David Seymour, right. Photo: RNZ
The new Taxpayers Union-Curia poll has been released today, and shows National and ACT able to form a government.
The poll has National at 35 percent and Labour 27 percent, each shifting less than a percentage point (up 0.1 and down 0.6 respectively ) from the previous month.
Each would gain a seat, however, with New Zealand First dropping by 1.9 points, to 3.9 percent - falling short of the 5 percent threshold to enter Parliament without an electorate seat win.
National would have 45 seats, Labour would have 35.
ACT was up 1.3 percentage points to 14.3 percent (19 seats), and the Green Party was up 0.7 points to 12.7 percent (17 seats).
It means National and ACT together could form a government with 64 seats.
Te Pati Māori was up 0.4 percentage points to 2.9 percent, (four seats).
TOP saw a 1.7 percentage point lift to 2.7 percent, still falling short of the threshold unless it wins Ilam - which a recent Curia electorate poll found was unlikely.
None of the other minor parties polled above 1 percent.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins' net favourability rose seven points to +16 percent, while National leader Christopher Luxon's net favourability rose three points to -4 percent. ACT's David Seymour was at -13 percent, James Shaw was at -16 percent, Rawiri Waititi was on -23 percent, and Winston Peters was on -38 percent.
The poll was taken between Thursday 31 August and 6 September, from a sample of 1000 New Zealand voters - 800 by phone and 200 by online panel - with results weighted to reflect the wider population. Margin of error was +/- 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.
National has opened up a small lead over Labour, according to RNZ's poll of polls.